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The History Of Brokered Conventions Won't Make The GOP(e) Too Optimistic
Bustle ^ | March 11, 2016 | Lauren Holter

Posted on 03/27/2016 12:30:13 PM PDT by SamAdams76

In order to become either the Republican or Democratic party nominee for president, candidates need to secure more than half of their party's delegates. Members of the GOP establishment who don't want to see Donald Trump represent conservatives in the general election in November are hoping for a brokered convention so they have a chance to nominate someone other than the real estate tycoon. The history of brokered conventions doesn't offer much hope though, considering there hasn't been one in decades.

If you aren't quite sure what a brokered convention is, here's the deal — a Republican presidential hopeful has to get at least 1,237 of the total 2,472 delegates at the national convention in order to win the nomination, and a Democratic candidate needs 2,382 of the 4,763 delegates this year. If no one reaches that magic number after every state has held its primary or caucus and superdelegates (who aren't bound to a candidate based on the primary election) have cast their votes, it becomes a brokered convention, and the party has to continue holding votes among the delegates until a candidate has a majority of support.

After the first ballot, delegates have the freedom to switch their votes so that one candidate can get more than 50 percent of delegates. Republicans that want to stop Trump's rise to the White House are hoping that delegates (who are current or former party leaders or elected officials) will use the opportunity to back someone other than the outspoken billionaire.

With four men still in the race, it is possible that none of them will have enough votes to secure the nomination; however, it would be the first contested GOP convention in almost 70 years. In 1948, Thomas Dewey eventually became the nominee after his two opponents withdrew on the third vote, giving him all the delegates. The last real brokered convention on the Democratic side occurred in 1952, when Adlai Stevenson won the nomination in the third delegate ballot.

More recently, incumbent President Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan were in a fierce contest for the GOP nomination in 1976. Neither candidate had a clear majority heading into the convention, but Ford garnered enough votes just before the delegates held their first vote; therefore, it never became a full-blown brokered convention.

Similar to the Ford-Reagan race, the 1984 Democratic convention began without a clear nominee. Former Vice President Walter Mondale was the front-runner, but needed 40 more delegates to officially beat out Gary Hart. When the first vote was cast, Mondale was named the Democratic nominee thanks to support from a majority of superdelegates.

It's important to note that neither Dewey, Ford, Mondale, nor Stevenson won the general election, making it seem that contested or almost-contested conventions don't lead to party victories. Unfortunately for the GOP, even if they're able to nominate someone other than Trump in a brokered convention this summer, it isn't likely that the divided party will beat either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
With all this chatter about a "stop-Trump" movement and the notion that if Trump falls short of the 1,237 delegates needed to win on the first ballot, that his nomination is doomed, I thought I'd post this sobering dose of reality (for those hoping for this outcome).

In every example I've seen where a presidential candidate has a delegate lead heading into the convention but not the "magic" number that would put him over the top on the first ballot, they ended up winning the nomination anyhow.

There are some who actually believe that if Trump goes into the convention with just 1,236 delegates (one short) that he will fail to win on the first ballot and the GOPe will then insert a Mitt Romney or a Paul Ryan instead, causing all or enough of Trump's delegates to bail on him to give the GOPe candidate an eventual victory on subsequent ballots.

But that's an extreme example. Let's say for the sake of argument that Trump does horribly in the upcoming contests and only ends up with 1,000 candidates with Cruz at around 700-800. Trump would still be the clear leader and would come out of the convention as the nominee.

The only way Trump can lose this is if he loses so badly that Cruz is able to overtake him on delegates and go into the convention with the delegate lead. Then Cruz would become the nominee (whether or not he reaches the 1,237 on the first ballot). Of course, this scenario assumes that Cruz would have to win in places like NY, NJ, PA and CT. Theoretically and mathematically possible but it would take an epic collapse by Trump for that to happen.

Only Trump or Cruz can win the nomination at this point. Kasich is already mathematically eliminated. And if the GOPe thinks they are going to be able to manipulate events to stick us with Romney, Bush or Ryan, they are smoking some serious crack.

There appears to be no precedence in U.S. political history of a candidate going into a convention with a clear lead in delegates (won during the primaries) and not coming out of that convention as the nominee.

I challenge anybody to prove me wrong (without going back to the 18th Century).

In both 1948 and 1952, the Republicans and Democrats respectively, took three ballots to choose their nominees. But those were different times. Most states chose to select their delegates at the convention as opposed to primaries held earlier, so it was expected that there would be wheeling and dealing in smoke-filled rooms. Still, in 1948, Dewey entered the convention with the lead in delegates and prevailed despite there being a "Stop-Dewey" movement and sentiment among the establishment Republicans being against him. 1952 was an odd year as Truman was expected to be the nominee all along but dropped out suddenly after a poor showing in New Hampshire, causing a scramble that resulted in Adlai Stevenson being the consensus choice (also on the third ballot). I believe Estes Kefauver might have had more "primary" delegates entering that convention but he only had 12 state wins under his belt at convention time and as noted, entered the race at a late stage.

Anyway, this ought to provoke some discussion.

1 posted on 03/27/2016 12:30:13 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: SamAdams76

I expected these types of articles to start running. It basically says that a brokered convention would not be so cruel against Trump or Cruz.

The only problem, in this case, is that virtually everyone at the convention DESPISES both Trump and Cruz (after all, the GOPe selects who goes there), and the moment they’re free from their obligation, they’ll simply go to someone that they actually support - as in Romney, Jeb, Linda, or Ryan.

I STRONGLY SUSPECT that in prior conventions the leading candidates were not held in this level of DISDAIN by the people attending the convention - so this article is comparing apples to oranges and MEANS NOTHING for this year, at least.


2 posted on 03/27/2016 12:34:56 PM PDT by BobL (A vote for Cruz...is now a vote for Romney / Jeb / Linda / Ryan (at the convention))
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To: SamAdams76

” The History Of Brokered Conventions Won’t Make The GOP(e) Too Optimistic”

It’s becoming patently obvious that the GOPe is purposely trying to lose this election.

They want Hillary, and think that will keep them in power in the Senate.


3 posted on 03/27/2016 12:35:22 PM PDT by JPJones
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To: JPJones

Yep....they have to know that if they put someone on the ballot who either didn’t run in the primaries, or did and lost decisively, the Republicans will be in for a landslide loss in November.

The only chance to stop Hitlery then, barring her indictment, would be a third party run by Trump. I would have to support that.

It’s for this reason, that I think I might vote for Trump in the upcoming primary, even though I would rather have Cruz. This suicide by GOPe must be stopped.


4 posted on 03/27/2016 12:43:40 PM PDT by rottndog ('Live Free Or Die' Ain't just words on a bumber sticker...or a tagline.)
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To: BobL
I agree with you that the GOPe despises Trump and Cruz. But from a practicality standpoint, there are going to have to make their peace with one of them being the nominee.

To date, Trump and Cruz have combined for 80% of the delegates thus awarded in primaries/caucuses so far. That percentage will only rise in the contests ahead as the field is down to just them and Kasich. And Kasich is going nowhere.

At this point, it no longer matters if Trump has 1100 and Cruz has 700 or if Cruz has 900 and Trump has 800. It is going to be one of them who gets the nomination. And Cruz has a very narrow path that requires him pretty much running the table from here on out. So chances are it is Trump. As I mentioned, Kasich is mathematically eliminated no matter what he does.

If the GOPe try to manuever the rules to discard the 80%+ support that Trump and Cruz have earned to insert as nominee a candidate who has already been clearly rejected by the rank and file will be akin to political suicide. In fact, it will likely be the end of the GOP.

5 posted on 03/27/2016 12:46:47 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (Delegates So Far: Trump (739); Cruz (465); Rubio (166); Kasich (143)
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To: rottndog

“Yep....they have to know that if they put someone on the ballot who either didn’t run in the primaries, or did and lost decisively, the Republicans will be in for a landslide loss in November.”

They know and are purposely taking us down that road.

“It’s for this reason, that I think I might vote for Trump in the upcoming primary, even though I would rather have Cruz. This suicide by GOPe must be stopped.”

I think Cruz would be a great prez, but he can’t beat Hillary.

Trump can.


6 posted on 03/27/2016 12:47:00 PM PDT by JPJones
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To: SamAdams76
If I read correctly, in each of the brokered conventions since WWII, the candidate that was leading going into the convention became the party's nominee. The second place candidate did not win, nor was there a substitute candidate.

What makes anyone believe that it would be different this time?

If Trump doesn't have enough delegates going into the convention, he will be close (like Mondale in 1984).

Trump will simply find enough delegate to make a deal with before the convention starts.

Unless Trump implodes in the next 3 months, he will be the candidate.

7 posted on 03/27/2016 12:49:20 PM PDT by Cowboy Bob (With Trump & Cruz, America can't lose!)
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To: SamAdams76
In fact, it will likely be the end of the GOP.

This kind of needs to happen...unfortunately, a Hitlery POTUS looks like it may be the cost.
8 posted on 03/27/2016 12:51:59 PM PDT by rottndog ('Live Free Or Die' Ain't just words on a bumber sticker...or a tagline.)
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To: Cowboy Bob
You and I are on the same page. If Trump falls short of the 1,237, it likely won't be by much and he'll make the necessary deals to get to that number on the first ballot. Even if Kasich stays in to the end, the Rubio/Carson/Bush/Fiorina candidates will total nearly 200 and those will be available for Trump and Cruz to go after. I trust that both he and Cruz have already made the necessary advances.

A few months ago, we'll look back on this thread and be amused that some of us thought a brokered convention giving us Jebbie Bush, Romney or Paul Ryan was even a remote possibility.

9 posted on 03/27/2016 12:59:10 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (Delegates So Far: Trump (739); Cruz (465); Rubio (166); Kasich (143)
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To: SamAdams76

Under the GOP convention Rule 40 (voted in by the delegates at the last national convention), a candidate must have won the majority of the delegates in at least eight states to be nominated. Unless Kasich suddenly wins seven more states, that leaves only Trump or Cruz.

After the first vote, the delegates are free to vote for any candidate that they want, as long as it is a candidate who has won a majority of the delegates in at least eight states (i.e., either Trump or Cruz). Unless most or all of Trump’s or Cruz’s delegates jump ship and vote for the other, the fight will be for the delegates that were pledged to Kasich, Rubio, and the other candidates that have dropped out. Whichever of Trump or Cruz gets the majority of these delegates will win the nomination.

The only way that any candidate other than Trump or Cruz can win the nomination is if most of Trump’s and Cruz’s delegates jump ship, vote to change the rules, and then vote for someone other than Trump and Cruz. There will not be enough delegates pledged to other candidates to change the rules or nominate someone else without the help of most or all of Trump’s or Cruz’s delegates.

I may be wrong, but I cannot imagine either Trump’s or Cruz’s delegates jumping ship at any point before the nomination.


10 posted on 03/27/2016 1:00:56 PM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: SamAdams76

http://thefederalist.com/2016/03/10/brokered-gop-conventions-often-produce-a-winning-president/

More on the same subject


11 posted on 03/27/2016 1:06:28 PM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like it)
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To: SamAdams76
Thank you for referencing that article SamAdams76. Please bear in mind that the following critique is directed at the article and not at you.

From a related thread …

Regarding the so-called political party conventions for nominating a president, here is the actual constitutional process for “nominating” and voting for a president.

”Article II, Section 1, Clause 2: Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

12th Amendment: The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; ..."

The main problem that patriots seem to be having with the political parties is this. Since patriots today have grown up with political parties, they wrongly think that the parties are in integral part of the constitutional republic.

But not only are political parties not defined by the Constitution, they exist to control 10th Amendment-protected state powers and associated state revenues that the corrupt Washington cartel has been stealing from the states since the end of the Civil War, and arguably since the administration of President George Washington imo.

In fact, note that one of the very few powers that the states have actually delegated to the feds, expressly via the Constitution, to decide domestic policy is to regulate, tax and spend for the US Mail Service (1.8.7).

So the key question concerning the political parties is how many political parties does it take to manage the US Mail Service?

I say none.

Remember in November !

If patriots elect Trump, Cruz, or whatever conservative they elect, they will also need to elect a new, state sovereignty-respecting Congress that will work within its constitutional Article I, Section 8-limited powers to not only support the president, but also surrender back to the states state powers and state revenues that the corrupt feds have been stealing from the states.

In fact, note that such a Congress will also probably be willing to fire state sovereignty-ignoring activist justices.

12 posted on 03/27/2016 1:13:02 PM PDT by Amendment10
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To: Bubba_Leroy
I believe you are correct in your interpretation of Rule 40 (but we probably need lawyers to know for sure!).

I think a likely scenario will go down like this:

Trump comes into the convention with 1150 delegates and Cruz about 650. Kasich stays in and has maybe 200 or so delegates locked up in his own right for the first ballot. But Kasich is only in this as a GOPe spoiler and his purpose is to deny Trump the majority on the first ballot so mission accomplished.

Out of the approx. 200 available (from Rubio/Carson/Bush/Fiorina), Trump is able to secure no more than about 50 of them (due to intense GOPe pressure) so with around 1200, still falls short of the 1237.

So we have our first ballot and Trump falls slightly short. Now only Trump and Cruz are eligible to receive votes on the second ballot (due to Rule 40) and Trump is able to wheel and deal and get the necessary 50 or so delegate he needs to hit the number.

Personally, I think that is a worse case scenario for Trump. I'm still confident he'll get 1237 on the first ballot.

13 posted on 03/27/2016 1:24:06 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (Delegates So Far: Trump (739); Cruz (465); Rubio (166); Kasich (143)
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To: SamAdams76
Only Trump or Cruz can win the nomination at this point.

And it's not looking great for Cruz.

14 posted on 03/27/2016 2:34:35 PM PDT by Albion Wilde (Who can actually defeat the Democrats in 2016? -- the most important thing about all candidates.)
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To: SamAdams76

“If the GOPe try to manuever the rules to discard the 80%+ support that Trump and Cruz have earned to insert as nominee a candidate who has already been clearly rejected by the rank and file will be akin to political suicide. In fact, it will likely be the end of the GOP.”

Agree...but they still will, that is who they are. And they can, justifiably, claim that those were the rules going in, and if Trump gets mad, so be it.

...but just to get there, they need Cruz to do well enough, hence their temporary support of him.


15 posted on 03/27/2016 2:40:33 PM PDT by BobL (A vote for Cruz...is now a vote for Romney / Jeb / Linda / Ryan (at the convention))
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To: SamAdams76

I agree except on one point. From what I have been reading the delegates are going to be much more ideologically in line with Ted Cruz. The States where this is happening that I have read this include LA, TN, AR, CO, SC,NC, TX, SD, ND, WY , and I have personal knowledge in IA.

Plus whether you want to admit it or not, many Republicans don’t want Trump to be the nominee. So let’s say Trump gets 1200 on the first ballot. He will lose 300-400 on the second ballot. At least. All 58 AR delegates will go to Cruz. The 50 SC delegates had to be at LAST years Republican State convention. How many Trump supporters were there? Trump hasn’t even thought about running.

I have said this all along. If it goes to a second ballot, Cruz wins.


16 posted on 03/27/2016 3:26:34 PM PDT by Iowa David (Cruz 2016 - Before it's too late)
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To: BobL
The only problem, in this case, is that virtually everyone at the convention DESPISES both Trump and Cruz (after all, the GOPe selects who goes there), and the moment they’re free from their obligation, they’ll simply go to someone that they actually support - as in Romney, Jeb, Linda, or Ryan.

I STRONGLY SUSPECT that in prior conventions the leading candidates were not held in this level of DISDAIN by the people attending the convention - so this article is comparing apples to oranges and MEANS NOTHING for this year, at least.

DISCLAIMER: i am NOT a Republican, and do not have a dog in this fight.

Bob, it has happened before, you simply did not go back far enough.

If you look at the 1940 Republican Convention and the shenanigans they pulled to give the nomination to Wendell Wilkie, who had never held political office and stood for nothing different from FDR that could be discerned, it is entirely possible that they could pull somebody in from the shadows.

That Wilkie did much better than expected against a President running for his third term merely shows that the level of information of the electorate hasn't really changed much since that election.

Incidentally, Thomas Dewey won five primaries and Robert Taft one. Wilkie wasn't even involved in the Primary elections.

17 posted on 03/27/2016 5:10:24 PM PDT by Calvinist_Dark_Lord ((I have come here to kick @$$ and chew bubblegum...and I'm all outta bubblegum! ~Roddy Piper))
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To: SamAdams76

bkmk


18 posted on 03/27/2016 10:39:30 PM PDT by AllAmericanGirl44 ("You see you don't have to live like a refugee" Tom Petty or obama?)
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