Wisconsin is winner takes most.
18 to the statewide winner
24 apportioned to the Congressional Districts. The winner of each district gets 3 delegates per the 8 Wisconsin CDs.
The math strongly favors the statewide winner.
Getting to 18 delegates without winning Wisconsin is unrealistic. Cruz would have to pile up a huge margin in the other two CDs and Trump would have to squeak by in the other six.
Wisconsin allocates like MO... because of this model, it is quite possible to win or lose by small margins but wind up with one candidate dominating the delegate count.
WI is going to be a narrow win for someone, the poll yesterday showing a 10 point lead for Cruz is laughable to me. Cruz may win, but no way ANYONE is taking WI by double digits.
The more interesting contest is the next one... will Trump stay above 50% in NY... if he does, he gets all 95 delegates there. He may get all 95 anyway... I’m hard pressed to see a district he’s likely to lose, even if he doesn’t cross 50% overall.