Posted on 04/13/2016 6:37:23 AM PDT by xzins
Who needs voters when you can do the full frontal Mississippi?
Ted is in denial. His arrogance prohibits him from seeing the truth
I agree ... it will be interesting to see if ANY commentator in the MSM even mentions this next Tuesday night.
>>Don’t you see they are after you too
Who was Putin’s pet thug, supported by Trump chief cheerleader Manafort, “after”?
http://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=Manafort+Yanukovych
Cruz = Weevil, Lesser; 1 Each.
Its a myth that Cruz can win. When the GOPe machine is not cooking the elections as part of the NeverTrump Agenda Cruz cannot win. If he cannot win with the base how the hell is he going to win in the general when half the population is looking for freebies?
They don’t really need to wait for next Tuesday, do they?
:>)
The difference between the party base and the establishment is that the primary goal of the party establishment is to win elections, while the primary goal of the base is to advance an agenda. Many times, those goals overlap. Sometimes they don't. But the fact that establishment wants to win elections (which makes the head of the RNC very popular and helps him keep that job) is the goal they never stop pursuing.
Together, Cruz and Trump control enough loyal delegates that the establishment won't be able to foist a third candidate on the party against their will.
Nor will the establishment have the "we'll just hold out until one of them gives in" option. Because the establishment's worst nightmare is a Trump/Cruz (or vice-versa) ticket. I think they'd believe (rightfully so) that such a ticket would get massacred. The establishment would be so horrified by that possibility that they'd end up agreeing to support Cruz or Trump, as long as they can pick the VP. That's what's going to happen.
Considering how many delegates both of them have amassed, I think the fear of some other candidate coming out of the Convention is extremely thin. That belief is a mixture of a small amount of paranoia, combined with a healthy dose of partisanship by Trump supporters who want to chase Cruz out.
But it'll be one of those two guys in the end, with the Establishment settling for getting to choose the VP.
Cruz has only 445 delegates at this point in time. He going to get his head handed to him in the northeast. At best, he’ll go into the first ballot with approximately 700 delegates. That is 537 short of 1237.
AND that means that that is what he begins the 2nd ballot with. He’s picked up via horsetrading about a 100 or so ‘pledges’ for the 2nd ballot.
That is no where near enough.
Once a delegate becomes free they do not sign contracts with those they might say yes to at one moment. The only way to see what they’ll really do is wait until after they actually cast their ballot.
IOW, someone could come along and offer them a sweeter deal.
Well, duh!
As long as the GOP exists as an organized and more or less coherent force, they will not give their Presidential nomination to a guy with no friends, whom “nobody likes”, and who called their leader a liar on the floor of the Senate.
And PLEASE do not respond “Mitch McConnell is a liar”. I know that. Everybody knows that. My point is not that Cruz is incorrect or inexpert at identifying liars, it’s that when you burn your bridges you don’t get to walk across them in the future.
On a second ballot, with all delegates unbound, all the “Cruz delegates” are going to turn into Romney delegates.
No it doesn't, not at all.
Just as the GOPe is counting on Trump's delegates becoming unbound on a second ballot, so, too will Cruz's delegates be.
Cruz won't have anything like 700 votes on a second ballot.
Enough for what? I think it is it is enough, when combined with what whatever loyal voters Trump has, to prevent a third candidate from winning.
A lot of Cruz's support seem to be "true believers", and he's probably expanded that number passed his first ballot totals. It's fun to think sometimes that "everyone is corrupt", but the truth is that an awful lot of people who participate in delegate selection are pretty committed to their personal views. I don't think either you or I would "sell" are votes, nor would most Freepers. Why assume that such a huge percentage of delegates are so much worse?
Anyway, I think the risk to the establishment in trying to pull that off is too high. They might end up greater their Frankenstein nightmare of Trump/Cruz, two guys who normally would never pair together unless they were each others the last option not to get screwed by the party. So rather than see that, the establishment (which is neither monolithic nor single-minded, will make the best deal they can with one of those guys.
Feel free to disagree, obviously. I just think that's by far the most realistic scenario, because I don't think all of the individual delegates are quite as corruptible as so many here seem to be assuming.
I agree with you. I was being EXTREMELY generous and pretending he had ‘loyal’ delegates.
We all know that’s a fantasy opinion, but AT BEST with ALL of his delegates in place CRUZ is still multiple hundreds of delegates away from winning EVEN on the Second ballot.
The GOPE is willing to USE Cruz to stop Trump. That doesn't mean they would give Cruz the nomination, just that they will toss him a bone (or a bag of silver) for his stopping Trump.
I’ve been saying all along, the GOPe hates Cruz more than Trump. Cruz is going to be used to marginalize the conservative wing of the party.
My point is that the rules do not allow trading delegates.
Cruz might ask his delegates to support Trump, but after the first round, any free delegate is actually totally FREE.
The very true believers you cite tend to despise Donald Trump and have most of them vowed #neverTrump
You are right on the money.
I have no doubt that you are 100% correct.
They will turn on Cruz and a pin cushion will have fewer holes when their long knives are done with him.
I think there is a lot of sentiment among even those Republicans who would prefer someone other than Trump or Cruz (including me), that we just can't ignore that many voters. For every "GOP-E" you have talking about another nominee, you have at least one saying "putting in a third candidate would destroy the party."
I can't stand Trump. Really. But if he runs and loses in the general, at least his supporters will know the party didn't screw him out of the nomination. It's not long-term damage. But giving it to Kasich, or Romney....I actually like Romney better than either of these guys, but that would piss me off to no end. He had his chance, didn't run this time, so that's it.
Point is, there are a fair number of anti Trump. anti-Cruz voters who nevertheless believe one of those two guys deserves the nomination. I don't think there's any way you can get to 1237 worth of delegates willing to screw over both of them. No chance.
The Establishment will get their pound of flesh at the VP stage, and I'd take bets all around on that one.
“It’s hard to imagine a more far-right presidential candidate than Cruz,”
That is an endorsement to my eyes.
“(GOP Plan to Backstab Cruz 2nd Ballot)”
Where does it say that? Or was that simply a gratuitous alteration?
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