I have him at 1190-ish before the 129 uncommitted delegates vote. A proportional share of those will put him over. And that’s with him at zero in NE, SD, and MT.
To get to 1400 they must be very optimistic about those three states, and CA. And the uncommitted. They must also be counting on getting a good deal of Rubio’s.
I think the 1400 is something of a scare tactic to give the appearance of certainty and inevitability. But I hope they are right.
My guess of 1300’s is after the uncomm. delegates have cast their votes..
They might also be thinking that Kasich will drop (for SOME reason...). If he does before the convention, Ohio law requires that the winner’s delegates go to the person who finished 2nd, which would be one Donald J. Trump. 66 big, fat delegates will go a LONG way toward getting him not only over the top, but close to 1400.
I’m not a Kasich fan for a number of reasons, but neither was I a George H. W. Bush fan - and Reagan picked him to unify the Party and assure a win. Assuming that Trump lasts 8 years (and his parents were 93 and 88 when they died, so he’s got GREAT genes, plus the best medical care on the planet - so he SHOULD last), then Kasich will be 71 and much less of a likely successor. Soooo, maybe it wouldn’t be so bad. Plus, Kasich hasn’t waged war against Trump much during the campaign, has LOTS of legislative experience, knows budgeting quite well, and has the necessary executive experience to step into the Oval Office and do a decent job, if necessary.
Oh, BTW, just because he’d be Veep for the first term, doesn’t necessarily mean that he has to be picked for the 2nd. If Trump runs, he could easily explain away the Kasich pick and drop by saying that he likes Kasich a lot, but picked him in order to heal the Party and win in 2016. However, for the 2nd term he wants to pick someone that he REALLY wants instead of someone he felt that he had to pick.