Hillary will have to spend a lot of money in NY to win, and Trump actually likes New York. Hillary is uncomfortable outside of Washington.
I have lived in and around NYC for all my 55+ years, save for two years of college in Boston.
Hitlery is as much a New Yorker as I'm a Texan. After all I did spend three days in Austin on a business trip. Fifteen years ago.
As a Texan, I think Trump has a very high probability of winning NY.