A great read from before 9-11.
Spotting the Losers: Seven Signs of Non-Competitive States
1998 Ralph Peters
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:0KXkZLeOn80J:denbeste.nu/external/Peters01.html+&cd=5&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
Mostly applies even after 9-11. Very timeless observations, for the most part, which can be applied at any time in human history.