It will be interesting to see if the crowds at his rallies are smaller now that the primary season has pretty much ended with the withdrawal of Cruz and Kasich, or whether they are bigger because this essentially marks the beginning of the general election campaign against Clinton.
I did some research yesterday, and found that Trump over-performed his Real Clear Politics average for the last 7 primaries starting with NY and ending with IN by 9 percentage points. In Indiana his RCP average was 42.8 percent, and he won it by 54.7, over-performing by 11.9 percentage points. Cruz over-performed his RCP average by 5, and Kasich under-performed by 7. So, it looks as if Trump picked up some from Kasich, expanded his lead among republicans, and even picked up some independents and democrats.
Prior to the NY primary, Trump was over-performing by about 4 percentage points, but did under-perform by about 2 points in a couple of races, including VA and NC.
He even over-performed his RCP average in Wisconsin by .6 percent.
So, there is a definite upsurge after WI. If this over-performance in the republican primaries carries over into the polls of the head to head match-ups between Clinton and Trump, he could actually be within the margin of error or even beating her at this point. Either way, with 6 months to go during which he will unload his heavy artillery on the slow moving, lumbering target named Hillary, there is plenty of time for him to make up any deficits he may have.
I have been thinking that they will be even bigger owing to the excitement of him now being the presumptive nominee. I guess we will get some idea this evening!