“I believe Trump will win the general fairly easily, but he has no shot of carrying NY or NJ.”
I think he can win NY. He will get upstate and if he can tie Clinton to Deblahblah he can win NYC.
As of April 1st, there are 5.8 million registered Democrats in NY. There are 2.7 million registered Republicans. Even if he got 100% of the Republican and 100% of the independent vote (500k or so) he’d fall far far short of winning NY state.