This is a new, internet-based poll. It, like many other such polls, relies heavily on converting a non-random sample into a representative sample through weighting of demographics. Trump tends to perform well in these polls and in automated caller polls, compared to live-caller polls. There is some question as to why polls in battleground states seem to differ so markedly from the nationwide polls.
it’s been a 2-3 point race the entire race except for the 3 weeks surrounding each candidates convention.
Trumps convention bounce started 2 weeks before the convention and lasted until one week after at the start of Hillary’s convention.
Hillary convention bounce started the 1st day of her Convention and continued 2 weeks after it ended.
Now we are right back where we started with both Hillary and Trump in the low 40’s nearly everywhere.
The debates WILL decide this race, mark my words.
I do not mind African-American voters being wary, that is actually a very good strategy going into this election, if they are also equally wary of Herself. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me over and over for decades, well, the burden of blame has to shift just a little.
Only 79% of blacks support Hillary.
That’s a far bigger problem for her than Trump. If she doesn’t get 90% she’s cooked.
We have been following this poll since the primaries. Generally speaking they lean Clinton. The internals of this poll make little sense. Trump is only down by two overall, but is tied with independents and trailing by double digits with women. Trump is generally up double digits with independents. With those numbers Clinton should be up by a lot more. So, perhaps morning consult has a Democrat to Republican sample more in line with and even turn out model. At any rate this race is tied amongst likely voters. Hillary seems to be stuck at her customary 41 to 43%.
I am so weary of hearing about black voters.
They are about 13% of the population-—why the special attention?
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> “...converting a non-random sample into a representative sample through weighting of demographics.”
Impossible.
All pollsters are statistics flunkies. They are a joke to genuine statistical science.
Only a pollster could think a distorted sample could be converted to a representative sample via weighting.
Such pollsters would believe a cube could be converted to a sphere by downweighting its corners. And they would be foolish enough to believe their distorted cube conclusions are valid.