Trump Leads in Iowa as Grassley Gains in Popularity (Trump 44%, Clinton 39%)

Emerson College ^ | September, 2, 2016 | Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball

[Dave W]

I used to do polling and we often would have to stop taking polls from all sorts of demographics - gender was most common followed by self described political identification. The reason, of course, is because we had plenty of polls completed by liberals, moderates or very conservatives...we did not need anymore from those folks.

Why don't you just say moderate - you will almost certainly be able to complete the survey.

[dp0622]

I didn’t think strongly conservative was that common!! :)

Good!!

I will do the moderate thing to get my 2 cents in in the future and I’ll be you are EXACTLY right, as you are in the know.

Thanks for the info.

Do you think very liberal and very conservative are more likely to take a poll?

[dowcaet]

Never fails. When a Republican leads in a poll they always bring up the unfavorable ratings of both candidates as if to cushion the blow to the leftist candidate. You didn’t see that when Hillary was leading in the polls the last two months. The only unfavorable ratings being mentioned was Trump’s. The subtle signs of media leftist bias!

[Sam Gamgee]

OK, well I guess he will have no problem cinching Iowa voters, even if it is bad policy.

[HamiltonJay]

Hillary is going to lose the rust belt folks, this isn’t a race... MN and IL are the only 2 states she has any shot of holding there.

IL even could possibly fall, depending on how angry folks in Chicago are at Rahm’s ineptitude... He’s pissed off so many people there, flat out apathy could keep Chicago turnout down to a point where it may not be able to overwhelm the rest of the state. Understand I am not saying Trump will win IL, I am simply saying, I would not be shocked if it turned out that IL wound up a surprise.

OH is probably the other state that you could see something odd, mainly because the machinations that helped produce massive fraud in OH in 2012 are still in place... Personally I think Trump will carry OH by more than enough to counter even the massive fraud that D’s have shown they can run up there, but if this election came down to a thread the needle and Trump needs OH to win... D’s have proven then can produce massive fraud there with no consequence.

I don’t think this will come down to a thread the arrow election.. I fully expect Trump to take FL, NC, AZ, PA, OH, IN, MN and WI...

VA may come over as well, due to apathy and zero enthusiasm for Clinton.. but NOVA is so heavily economically dependent on the corrupt status quo, that you may get better turn out for Hillary in VA that elsewhere, not because anyone is excited to vote for her, but that many people in NOVA know damn well their own paychecks are tied to the status Quo, and so NOVA turnout may be high and overwhelm the rest of the state. Basically NOVA folks voting for their pocketbooks not really voting for a candidate.

I also expect Trump to pick off at least a few other states in NE, that have been traditionally D since the 90s.

I see no path for Hillary to 270, and I see so many options for Trump to get 270 that even if fraud should cost a state like OH it won’t stop him from winning.

I have believed from day one Hillary’s best day she is going to get around 15 states and about 180 EC votes... more realistic she will likely be closer to 10 states and 100-120EC votes. I

The firewall the D’s have relied on through the rust belt for 30 years is in meltdown... NE which has been insanely reliable for them will crumble as well, though likely not as sharply as the rust belt. However a complete collapse is not beyond the realm of possibility.

I think the inflection point in the polls will be obvious about a week before the first debate... at that point, it will be clear Hillary is in major trouble, by the end of the month, only the most ardent D will still be holding onto hope that Hillary can win.

[sargon]

ITS MUCH BETTER than we know.

THIRD ###ING time this week I was kicked out of a poll after answering FIRST question: VERY CONSERVATIVE!!!

yougov AND Ipsos

Orly?

No wonder all the Hillary Shillary's look and sound like they're sh-----g bricks on a continuous basis.

The more desperate the Media and Establishment (but I repeat myself) get, the greater the blowback that builds up against them.

Donald Trump is going to keep surging until, finally, they'll all have to admit the Truth— Trump is winning!

Vote Trump!

[dp0622]

yougov has clinton up 2, even WITH kicking STRONG CONSERVATIVES out of the poll.

[jjotto]

Grassley gains? Is that a joke?

He’ll get around 70% of the vote, as usual. Patty Judge isn’t as strong a candidate as the last Dem he faced, when he won by a mere 30 percentage point margin.