ALPHA MALE
Posted on 09/03/2016 5:00:13 AM PDT by Nicojones
MA?
Nixon and Reagan pulled it off. And Trump is no Nixon and Reagan.
Yes I was wrong.
I was way low-—Trump had 1400 delegates when Cruz dropped out.
When this all over, some pundit will write like Pauline Kael did in the New Yorker in the aftermath of Richard Nixon’s famous 1972 landslide win, “I don’t know any one who voted for him.”
People in our media bubble, too - don’t know any one who could vote for Trump. They just can’t imagine that’s possible.
After all, their own polls tell them, there is no way, no how an alt-Right candidate like Trump can win. Its impossible.
Yet latest batch of polls are controverting the CW.
Even Kristol was changing his tune this week.
When Cruz dropped out after Indiana, Trump was able to run the table from there, including states that Cruz probably would have won or at least done well in had he stayed in. So I'm thinking your original prediction would have been close had Cruz stayed in to the bitter end.
absolutely!
It is weird here. I still see Bernie signs in the yards, but nothing for Hillary. Nothing. Zip, Nada.
Even “Deep Blue Mass” hates the witch.
You can’t create a large enough lead to deter and overcome vote fraud UNLESS you first catch up, then actually but perhaps slowly pass the fraudster.
But even a slow erosion of her highness’s lead at this point reduces what little enthusiasm is over in the fraud’s campaign.
If she’s in trouble in Blue states, you can imagine the trouble she’s in Purple States.
Add it all up - her campaign is going nowhere fast any time soon.
There’s no passion for Hillary.
She has her faithful 40% but that’s it.
Undecideds won’t break for someone who has no chance to win.
Nice analysis. I am going to go out on a limb and say that Trump wins with 6% + spread (subject to change via black swan). The enthusiasm gap is wider than Hillary’s butt. Like you say, Hillary ain’t Obama and Trump ain’t Romney.
It's not like she wouldn't have done the same thing had their roles been reversed. Poor baby. </sarc> What goes around, comes around.
Only Hillary thing I have seen is her campaign logo done in homo/rainbow on a homobile in St. Petersburg.
Nope.
And every election is different.
Pollsters who assume 2016 turnout will be like 2012 are snorkeling butt.
It could D+, split or R+. Truth is no one knows what the electorate is going to be like until it actually shows up.
The polls may be underestimating Trump’s appeal by making Hillary appear a good deal stronger than she actually is in real life.
Rule of Thumb?!? That’s a microagression....
Sexist!!!
LOL....You’ll get a kick when you see the original meaning....
Here it is:
The ‘rule of thumb’ has been said to derive from the belief that English law allowed a man to beat his wife with a stick so long as it is was no thicker than his thumb. In 1782, Judge Sir Francis Buller is reported as having made this legal ruling and in the following year James Gillray published a satirical cartoon attacking Buller and caricaturing him as ‘Judge Thumb’.
In 2012, Gary Johnson received about 0.97% of the vote. (Stein garnered just 0.37%). Both of them were total non-factors in 2012.
I think the reason Johnson and Stein are polling so high is that it's a convenient (and fashionable) spot for people to park their vote when the pollsters come calling. But when election day comes, the vast majority of them will come around to one of the two major candidates. And I think Trump has the big advantage there.
The last third party candidate to get to double digits in a general election was Ross Perot. And Ross Perot was a highly visible figure who had maybe 99% voter recognition. Everybody knew who Ross Perot was.
If I bumped into Gary Johnson on the street today, I'd have no idea who he was unless he identified himself to me. And I'm a political junkie.
In 2000, Ralph Nader got around 2.75% of the vote and he too was a widely recognized public figure. I would be very surprised if this Gary Johnson even got that much.
Very hopeful but remember the electoral vote. Must win states lost before, states thought to be tossup or even safe Dem.
2000: Florida or no Florida, Gore lost narrowly. Had he won HIS HOME STATE he would have become President.
—
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-catches-clinton-latest-reuters-ipsos-poll-finds-215514755.html
Voters don’t elect the American president directly, of course, but through the Electoral College, an assembly representing each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia based on the number of legislators they have in Congress. As of last Friday, the separate Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation polling project estimated Clinton was on track to win the Electoral College, by about 332 votes to 206. Those numbers were scheduled to be updated later Friday.
In recent weeks, Clinton has come under renewed criticism over her handling of classified information while serving as U.S. secretary of state, and her family’s charitable foundation has come under fresh scrutiny for the donations it accepted while Clinton served in the Obama administration. Meanwhile, Clinton hasn’t been campaigning as actively as Trump
County electoral votes nationwide often show a sea of red. It’s the spots of blue that are the problem, the big city areas that vote Dem and can swing that state into her column. It can be done, but it won’t be easy.
(Song parody I wrote in 04 after Kerry loss, set to the tune of Massachusetts by the Bee Gees):
He is going back to Massachusetts
Couldn’t win the White House if he tried
But they still love him back in Massachusetts
They voted for him through all those times he lied
Got a lot of votes in San Francisco
New York and LA, they loved him too
But he’s still going back to Massachusetts
The Swift Boat Hero left Democrats so blue
Saw one Clinton/Kaine sign here in Beverly MA but that was about it.
Some Trump lawn signs, and a few homemade banners. More enthusiasm. It will be tough. But hey even MA went for Reagan once.
ALPHA MALE
At this point it in the category “for what it’s worth”, which isn’t much.
I there is a light upward trajectory. In this poll, I don’t ever expect to see it get much above the current level of over under. 45-46% tops. I think it is a function of the sample, not a reflection of overall support.
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