The USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll

LA Times ^ | October 2, 2016 | Dornsife

[theoilpainter]

What Verizon poll?

[Voluntaryist]

This thread is missing pertinent info from Future Useless Eater

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3476102/posts?page=17#17

[ConservativeDude]

Here are the final numbers that I am referencing:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

All of them (Politico, IBD, Rasmussen, CNN, Gallup, ABC/Wash Post, Monmouth, NBC, Pew) underestimated obama’s 3.9% national margin of victory. Only ABC and Pew put him at 3% ahead.

This data certainly underscores the point that apparently undecideds broke to the incumbent, obama.

Now...obviously obama’s larger margin of victory “nationally” comes b/c of a huge lopsided win in heavy population states. But regardless, matching apples to apples (national numbers in the final poll, national numbers after votes are counted), obama did significantly better on election day than the polls indicated.

So, yah, the polls were wrong. But not in a good way. Alas.

[pepsi_junkie]

Yup. Mitt phoned it in early just like Hillary is doing today.

Romney's problem was that he isn't a good actor. When he was attacking conservatives he really FELT the anger and disdain and he was pretty effective. But when he was attacking Obama he just couldn't sell it. Because he never believed any of it, he agreed with Obama on nearly everything.

Note how bombastic Romney was in his anti-Trump screed this past summer. Ever recall seeing him so animated or passionate when he went after Obama?

[goldstategop]

The polls are making the assumption Obama voters will turn out in large numbers for Hillary.

If that’s true, her reported 3-5% lead in some polls should hold up.

If they don’t and the other side of the coin is the polls are assuming Trump voters won’t show up for Trump and they do show up, that lead gets wiped out at the voting booth.

We won’t know for sure who actually comes out to vote until Election Day. And even then only the raw popular vote will tell the tale.

[fortheDeclaration]

No RP this time.

[fortheDeclaration]

Agreed. Turnout is the key.

Romney did not get his base to the polls.

[ConservativeDude]

I think, objectively, we can make a counterassumption that enthusiasm is down for her, as compared to obama (even in 2012).

But as you note, we won’t know until the votes are actually cast.

Thanks for that feedback.

[JohnEBoy]

I see your point, now. I still believe he is the only second-termer to assess fewer votes on the second try.

But back to your original question about whether undecideds break for the challenger. I believe, in general, that is true. But there is another phenomenon that happens ... the “bandwagon effect”. Basically, there are a large number of voters whose voting criteria is ... “I am voting for the winner”. It’s important to these voters that they vote for the eventual winner, so they can tell their friends they voted for the right candidate. This why the media touts positive polls for democrats; to try do drum up superficial groundswell support.

[ConservativeDude]

yes...and we certainly hope the bandwagon picks up the Trump wave!!!!

[ConservativeDude]

yes...and we certainly hope the bandwagon picks up the Trump wave!!!!

[AlphaOneAlpha]

You stated:
“They will keep their mouths shut for now but once they get behind the curtain on Nov 8th, they will vote for Trump.”

That is pretty much what happened when Reagan blew Carter out of office.

Conditions in this country are very much the same for this election as it was then. When the natives get restless they vote for change. They don’t get loud, they get even.