Posted on 10/03/2016 7:56:58 AM PDT by ZULU
This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
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It’s one of the ones but not the one we are most concerned about at this time.
It’s right there as the fourth item in “Breaking News” column at the right hand blue side bar.
Trump is going to win.
Their predecessor called it for Obama in 2012 when most polls projected a Mitt Romney win.
This year polls are calling for a Hillary win and so far its right on the money about Trump.
Hillary has not risen above 42% since September. Its over.
What are you all saying, this poll doesn’t count?
A Verizon poll today has Mrs. Bill at 49 percent; Trump, 44.
And 49 is what Mr. Bill got in 1996.
Two facts encourage me, first being that since Hillary’s public collapse and deplorable weekend voters moved to Trump and they aren’t coming back, second both Hillary’s and Trump’s percentages are at the 95% expectation level. Every day Trump stays at that level the stronger the base and the harder for Hillary to reclaim support.
Verizon overcharges me, probably overpolled democrats also. No tabs no believe.
With another Obama term, its literally all over for America and western civilization. We could survive 2 Obama terms - with difficulty.
But with a third term under this corrupt, vile, globalist, kleptocratic plutocrat, its all over.
There is still a solid 10 per cent of the vote "up for grabs" and I find it hard to believe they will vote for Johnson or Stein in any significant number.
I believe there are still a lot of Trump voters out there "shamed" to admit supporting him. They will keep their mouths shut for now but once they get behind the curtain on Nov 8th, they will vote for Trump.
While four years ago I was cautiously optimistic that Romney would squeak out a win, I noticed the lack of enthusiasm for Romney. If you look at YouTube videos from four years ago at this very time, Mitt was in Colorado getting endorsed by John Elway and Ann Romney was doing a "Women for Romney" event that was flat and listless. Also, Mitt Romney was shown ordering lunch at Chipotle in this video and it just looks so sad. I'm talking Jeb Bush sad. Even when Mitt tries to relax, he is just so stiff.
Yup. Mitt phoned it in early just like Hillary is doing today.
Its all about enthusiasm and the election will be decided by who can bring out their voters to the polls.
bear with me...serious inquiry. But: in 2012, obama actually under-polled. It was clear he was going to win, but, he did better on election day than in the polls because (so goes the orthodox interpretation) undecideds broke to obama...pretty heavily.
Yes, we all “know” that undecideds are supposed to break to the challenger. But the opposite happened in 2012.
Why do we think that undecideds will break to Trump, the challenger, against the incumbent this time?
Just b/c it is Trump (not Mitt), and hilary (not obama)?
I’d love some data on that. But ...alas...it may not exist.
Thank you...
Because we see that, since the conventions in July, Trump is getting MASSIVE crowds at his rallies—turning away tens-of-thousands that his arenas can't hold, and Hillary can't fill a high school gym.
Because we have brains, and eyes, and ears, and they all work.
And because it isn't "The Magic Negro" running this time for the Dems, it's the world's most reviled "C"-word.
Clinton.
N'kay?
Ok.
I guess we will see soon enough.
I disagree with your premise. I have read, sorry don’t have a citation, that Obie won by 3.4% and he was supposed to do much better by the late polls. Also, I believe he was the first second-termer to get fewer votes than he received in the first election.
Others can comment on my assertions ... I’m going by my memory.
There was “trumped-up” enthusiasm for Romney (ha-ha) near the end, but it was too little too late. I believe any enthusiasm at the time was related more about stopping Obie, rather than real enthusiasm for Romney, himself. On the hand, I believe the high turn-out at Trump rallies represents real enthusiasm for the man, along with the delicious idea of preventing Her Hillness from ascending the throne.
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