I followed this Vote in Colombia. Polls leading up to the vote indicated that YES would win by 60/40 percent. Actual voting was 49/51, LOSING to the NO vote (against the proposed peace treaty with the FARC). That one caught everybody by surprise!
My cousin lived there for over 10 years when the cartels were going gangbusters, married a Columbian gal and now have a bright daughter (albeit, both the females are Odumbo supporters, so not that bright). When it was bad back then (perhaps in the 80s), they wanted to leave the country. It took over 2 years just to get out of that hell hole. Then they moved to Ecuador for a few years, and finally left that place because the crime was getting out of hand. Now in DC. I still wonder if DC was any better, but both he and his wife now work for the Fish and Wildlife service.