N.Korea 'Could Make 100 Nuclear Weapons by 2020'

Chosun Ilbo ^ | October 10, 2016

[TigerLikesRooster]

N.Korea 'Could Make 100 Nuclear Weapons by 2020'

October 10, 2016 13:07

North Korea will have 50 to 100 nuclear weapons and be capable of striking any target in the U.S. mainland with nuclear-tipped long-range missiles within four years, the conservative Rand Corporation claimed Saturday.

The Rand Corporation makes the prediction in a report for the leaders of the next U.S. administration, citing the North's nuclear weapons as one of the major threats facing it.

The defense think tank points out that the North is believed to have enough nuclear materials to make 13 to 21 nuclear weapons. The regime will also likely ready a considerable number of long-range ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, which could be tipped with nuclear warheads, between 2020 and 2025.

Rand warns that the U.S. military could be incapacitated and its war plans frustrated if the North succeeds in securing a reliable and sustainable nuclear force. It also expresses worries about calls for a preemptive strike on the North or nuclear armament in South Korea.

A preemptive strike against the North's nuclear and missile facilities using conventional weapons would only lead to escalation, it warns.

Rand predicts growing calls in South Korea and Japan for nuclear armament out of disaffection with the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

It advises the next U.S. administration to determine the limit of tolerance of the North's nuclear weapons development and decide what action to take when the moment comes.

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[ETL]

The two sides [Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Russia] agreed to "promote and enhance friendly relations" in line with the joint declaration of July 19, 2000 and the Russia-DPRK friendship and good neighborly cooperation treaty of February 9, 2000.

Putin and Kim agreed during their talks to promote a Russian- DPRK political dialogue on the Korean issue and international affairs, and discussed many topical international problems, deputy head of the Russian presidential administration Sergei Prikhodko told reporters following the talks.

The two leaders spoke for an independent and peaceful solution to the issue of reunification of the Korean Peninsula, and against "any outside obstacles to this process" as "unacceptable."

http://www.china.org.cn/english/2001/Aug/17008.htm

or,

http://web.archive.org/web/20100808144846/http://www.china.org.cn/english/2001/Aug/17008.htm
_________________________________

Sec of State, Madeline Albright - Bill Clinton administration

[ETL]

On 20 April 1978, Soviet air defense shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 902 (KAL 902) near Murmansk, Soviet Union, after the civilian aircraft violated Soviet airspace

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_902
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Korean Air Lines Flight 007 was a scheduled Korean Air Lines flight from New York City to Seoul via Anchorage, Alaska. On September 1, 1983, the South Korean airliner serving the flight was shot down by a Soviet Su-15 interceptor, near Moneron Island west of Sakhalin in the Sea of Japan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

[StoneWall Brigade]

Korea Air Lines Flight 007 was the flight Congressman Larry MacDonald was on

[Byron_the_Aussie]

.. the conservative Rand Corporation claimed Saturday ..

Vacancy on the Raytheon board, Tige?

Let the jockeying begin.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Putin and Kim Jong-il got really close after Kim's push for Shinuiju Economic Zone collapsed was sabotaged by China. Kim made a whirlwind tour of Russia riding his train all the way to Moscow. Putin gave Kim a horse as a token of friendship.

Putin's dream was to establish rail link from Russian Far-east through the eastern coast of Koreas and hopefully someday, all the way down to Japan. He also wanted to build gas-pipeline reaching S. Korea and Japan.

At first, the project seems to be going smoothly, until Russians from their Railroad Ministry surveyed N. Korean railroads and found out that railroads were in such disrepair that they have to be rebuilt from scratch. N. Korea insisted that Russians do it all by themselves, paying it out of Russians' own pocket.

Russia has bad memory of being ripped off by N. Korea during Soviet era. They took billions of dollars and never paid back any of it. So They have dim view of upfront aid which is to be paid later. After a while, things fell apart and the talk of grand project disappeared into thin air.

Some speculated that this was no more than a gambit by Kim Jong-il to play Russia against China to remind China that it is not helpful to stiff N. Korea.

Anyway Putin has not given up on the idea. Russia is still circling around and looking for an opening to restart their grand project. N. Korea is not helping though, as it has always been.

[Byron_the_Aussie]

US saber rattling will play right into Kim’s hands. Wanna bring the Norks to heel? Get the Chinese to do it.

[TigerLikesRooster]

More USN ships in S. China Sea.
Tariffs on Chinese goods.

That will get China's attention.

China has at least two fronts: Korean Peninsula and S. China Sea.

Squeeze China from both directions, then Chinese have to make a choice between the two.

[ETL]

Strange, isn't it, that Russia now claims to despise and condemn communism, yet continues to this day propping up militarily numerous communist dictatorships around the world. As I've tried to stress here over and over the Russians are masters at the art of deception. They play chess, thinking many moves ahead of their opponents, while mostly of, unfortunately, suck at simple checkers.

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From the Sino-Russian Joint Statement of April 23, 1997 [at the time of Bill Clinton's huge ChinaGate scandal-etl]:
"The two sides [China and Russia] shall, in the spirit of partnership, strive to promote the multipolarization of the world and the establishment of a new international order."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HI29Ag01.html
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" Joint war games are a logical outcome of the Sino-Russian Friendship and Cooperation Treaty signed in 2001, and reflect the shared worldview and growing economic ties between the two Eastern Hemisphere giants."

http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2005/09/war-games-russia-china-grow-alliance

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,170287,00.html
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Sept 11, 2014

China and Russia to build major seaport: report

China and Russia will build one of the largest ports in north-east Asia on Russia's Sea of Japan coast, reports say, in a further sign of the powerhouses' growing alliance.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-11/china-and-russia-to-build-major-seaport-report/5738036
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How Russia arms America's southern neighbors

Ioan Grillo
May 9, 2014

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil -- Russia's push into Ukraine has put many on edge. But less known is that Russia is also strengthening its military links south of the Rio Grande and re-establishing itself as a power in the region.

Vladimir Putin has been strengthening military links here, and Russia is now the largest arms dealer to governments in Latin America, surpassing the United States.

Russia has even floated the possibility of building new military bases in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and putting its warships permanently in the Caribbean.

In the midst of the Ukraine crisis, Russia's top diplomat Sergei Lavrov recently visited Cuba, Peru, Chile, and Nicaragua, where he announced that Russia would also pour money into the new Central American canal project. ..."

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/140508/russian-arms-military-trade-latin-america
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Russia Boosts Arms, Training for Leftist Latin Militaries

Moscow defense minister inks deals with Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua for joint exercises

BY: Bill Gertz
February 20, 2015

Russia agreed to provide military training for three leftist regimes in Latin America and increase military visits and exercises following a visit last week to the region by Moscow's Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu, Pentagon officials said.

Shoygu met with defense and military leaders in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua and signed several agreements on warship visits and military training during the visit, which ran from Feb. 11 to 14. It is not clear whether any new arms deals were completed during the visit.

Defense officials said the Russian leader is seeking bases in the region for strategic bomber flights that Shoygu recently promised would include flights over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-boosts-arms-training-for-leftist-latin-militaries/
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[ETL]

Something to consider as a definite possibility...

Did Communism Fake Its Own Death in 1991?
American Thinker ^ | January 16, 2010 | Jason McNew

In a [] 1984 book [New Lies for Old], ex-KGB Major Anatoliy Golitsyn predicted the liberalization of the Soviet Bloc and claimed that it would be a strategic deception. ..."

"Golitsyn's argument was that beginning in about 1960, the Soviet Union embarked on a strategy of massive long-range strategic deception which would span several decades and result in the destruction of Western capitalism and the erection of a communist world government."

"Golitsyn published his second book, The Perestroika Deception, after the Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991. This book contained further analysis of the liberalization, in addition to previously classified memoranda submitted by Golitsyn to the CIA. The two books must be read together to get a complete picture of Golitsyn's thesis."

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/did_communism_fake_its_own_dea.html
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Link to read "New Lies for Old" online:
https://archive.org/details/GolitsynAnatoleTheNewLiesForOldOnes
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Link to read "The Perestroika Deception" online:
https://archive.org/details/pdfy-TVvzZzfXiMBkMdvD

[ETL]

“while mostly of, unfortunately, suck at simple checkers.”

while [most of us], unfortunately, suck at simple checkers.

[ThunderSleeps]

50 to 100 weapons within 4 years? Where are they getting all that weapons grade fissile material from? Didn’t bammy and crew and others concede much to them to stop their nuclear program? I thought they shut down and de-fueled their reactors?

[TigerLikesRooster]

Kim's push for Shinuiju Economic Zone collapsed, was sabotaged by China

[TigerLikesRooster]

They are back on-line for a couple of years. I know they could get lots of uranium(they have large uranium mine,) but not sure how they can secure enough supply of plutonium.

[Byron_the_Aussie]

High risk strategy, mon ami. What’s worked before? The Norks humiliated China just ahead of an Olympic Committee visit, to Beijing. The PRC cut power to the DPRK for three days - in winter. That sent the pit bull back to its kennel. For China, everything is about prestige.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Things have come this far because we want to get it done with minimum risk. That played into N. Korea's and China's hand.

China has always faced multiple fronts historically. Some country next to China managed to survive because China had to take care of problems on the other side of China.

China faced the same problem during Korean War. They had to choose between Taiwan and Korea, and chose the latter.

The rising stakes in this geopolitical game is not the result of unnecessary overreaction, but the buildup of tension over many years. If one has to solve N. Korean problem, he has to deal with China first.

I don't think they are good at crisis management.

[TigerLikesRooster]

I suspect that U.S. is starting to exercise nuclear blackmail of its own, aimed at China, hoping that it will make China change its attitude.

People talk about China's obsession with prestige. On the other hand, even if we give China a face-saving way to back down, China won't take it, because backing down in any fashion will be humiliating. We can sit and hope that China somehow implode soon, but we have no control over how long it persist before it goes down, and what damage we have to sustain in the mean time.

[Wildbill22]

50 to 100 weapons within 4 years? Where are they getting all that weapons grade fissile material from? Didn’t bammy and crew and others concede much to them to stop their nuclear program? I thought they shut down and de-fueled their reactors?

---

Yea that is right. It was Bill Clinton who totally shut down the NK nuclear program. We are safe now, Bill Clinton said so, like Obama did with Iran... (sarc)