[Kenny]

The Democrat media will have to make their phony polls look like a close race so their reluctant base will get up to vote.

You miss the point, the 11 point lead will be averaged into the Real Clear Politics average which has somehow become the gold standard though it never accurately reflects most recent polls.

[conservativepoet]

You miss the point, the 11 point lead will be averaged into the Real Clear Politics average which has somehow become the gold standard though it never accurately reflects most recent polls.

_________________

The gold standard then turns out to be “fools gold.”

[AndyTheBear]

...though it never accurately reflects most recent polls.

Rolling averages never tell you the current state, only what the state was averaged together for their period, in the RCP case this is the last two weeks.

They sacrifice being current in order to smooth out the effects of statistical noise.

The big polling uncertainty about this campaign is the potential monster vote and possible Bradely effect. The YUGE difference in the rally/excitement/movement in the campaigns does not necessarily mean Trump gets more votes, but I take it to be corroborating evidence that the monster vote theory is real....and if it is, then Trump will win easily.