Iowa Absentee REQUEST Statistics Updated (Comparison to 2014/2012 elections)

Iowa SOS ^ | 10/12/16 | me

[Ravi]

Iowa continues to trend well...

[Ravi]

Again keep it close with early absentee voting in Iowa as Dems historically try to run up big margins in Iowa with early voting. Keep it close and overwhelm on election day. Here are our running totals of absentee REQUESTS at equivalent points in time for 2016, 2014 and 2012 elections:

10/12/16: DEMS-135,638; GOP-104,780; UAF-60,885

10/07/14: DEMS-116,090; GOP-88,011; UAF-50,123

10/10/12: DEMS-181,026; GOP-111,877; UAF-82,967

Trending close to 2014 which sets up nicely in Iowa. I will start posting absentees RECEIVED starting next week. Still huge Dem drop-off, pretty big UAF drop-off and smaller GOP drop-off from 2012. All in all seems good.

[Ravi]

ping

[Reily]

I don’t see how the numbers here are to our advantage.

[ctdonath2]

Both are up about 20,000. I don’t see the advantage.

[MMaschin]

I don’t see how the numbers here are to our advantage.

It all depends on how it corresponds to prior elections. I can see how, for example, more urban voters might prefer absentee voting, while rural and suburban voter might prefer in-person voting.

So, it might be positive if, for example, in 2012 the Democrats had a 80k vote advantage, and this year it's only 30k. It would show weakness in their base.

[LS]

Thanks. I have IA in “safe” column.

[Reily]

Ok I can see that.

[SpeedyInTexas]

In Iowa, the DEMs win during early voting. The REPs win on election day.

Keep the DEM advantage down during early voting (like 2014), and REPs then win.

The numbers absolutely look good.

[Mjreagan]

One down (hopefully), four to go

[JayGalt]

Just looking superficially compared to 2012 the Republicans are down 31k rather than 70K, that is encouraging.
If some of the Dems are voting for Trump even better.

10/12/16: DEMS-135,638; GOP-104,780; UAF-60,885

10/07/14: DEMS-116,090; GOP-88,011; UAF-50,123

10/10/12: DEMS-181,026; GOP-111,877; UAF-82,967

[Ravi]

Think you’re reading that wrong

[JayGalt]

Don’t see how.

[Interesting Times]

Compare 2016 to 2012. 2014 was an interim election; one that went extremely well for the GOP.

[JayGalt]

That’s what I did. 31K excess Dem 2016, 70K excess Dem 2012.

10/12/16: DEMS-135,638; GOP-104,780; UAF-60,885

10/10/12: DEMS-181,026; GOP-111,877; UAF-82,967

[Ravi]

181,000 - 135,000 = 46,000 fewer Dems requesting ballots compared to 2012.

[Ravi]

Oh I see what you did there. Sorry

[JayGalt]

Thanks. You are right the Dems have decreased much more than the Reps comparing 2012 & 2016. Two different ways to get to the same conclusion. MAGA.

[lkco]

Or another way at this point:

in 2012 we had 39.2% of ballots returned and bad things happened

in 2014 we had 43.1% of ballots returned and good things happend

in 2016 we hav 43.6% of ballots returned so therefore good things should happen

[Reily]

Let’s hope!