Posted on 10/19/2016 5:44:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 24.9% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.
10/19/16: REPs - 316,400, DEMs - 305,626 lead of 10,774 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.3%
10/18/16: REPs - 265,657, DEMs - 259,824 lead of 5,833 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.6%
10/17/16: REPs - 210,629, DEMs - 210,595 lead of 34 for REPs, 41.07% to 41.06%
10/16/16: REPs - 198,674, DEMs - 193,610 lead of 5,064 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.5%
10/15/16: REPs - 169,862, DEMs - 163,598 lead of 6,264 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.3%
10/14/16: REPs - 130,758, DEMs - 124,773 lead of 5,985 for REPs, 42.0% to 40.1%
10/13/16: REPs - 83,646, DEMs - 77,817 lead of 5,829 for REPs, 42.4% to 39.5%
10/12/16: REPs - 43,358, DEMs - 40,049 lead of 3,303 for REPs, 42.6% to 39.4%
For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):
10/19/16: REPs - 23,905, DEMs - 28,411, lead of 4,506 for DEMs
10/18/16: REPs - 18,585, DEMs - 22,338, lead of 3,753 for DEMs
10/17/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs
10/16/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs
10/15/16: REPs - 16,643, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,430 for DEMs
10/14/16: REPs - 12,937, DEMs - 15,764, lead of 2,827 for DEMs
10/13/16: REPs - 9,033, DEMs - 10,964, lead of 1,931 for DEMs
10/12/16: REPs - 3,778, DEMs - 4,403, lead of 625 for DEMs
Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.
3,036,466 total absentee ballots mailed as of today
2,429,172 total returned (3,036,466 * 0.8)
1,044,543 - REP 43% (2,429,172 * .43)
971,668 - DEM 40% (2,429,172 * 0.40)
72,875 REP Lead Predicted
ping
Florida is one of the states Trump must have to win. Floridians, what is the feeling down there? Polls have shown it all over the place. Will the huge silent majority show up in Florida? Trump has held some huge rallies there!
good trend the last 2 days
I'd like to see that number tattooed on Hillary's ***.
I'd like to see that number tattooed on Hillary's ***.
But we won’t know until later how many of those ballots are vote fraud, people casting ballots for Hillary in the name of dead/moved/senile registered Republicans.
Just to clarify this - “REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012”
You mean that registered republicans led registered democrats in terms of returned ballots in 2012? I am in FL and it was my understanding that is how it worked but just checking.
Thanks!
The huge jump from 34 to over 10,000 is suspicious. What’s going on there?
Romney lost Florida despite the fact that 79,000 more REPs returned absentee ballots than DEMs. So, a projected lead in this category of 72,875 is not encouraging.
You can count mine tomorrow.
Many dems will vote Trump!!!
Good news over @ CTH, Look @ commenter "FleporBlog" and his or her numbers in various counties in key states. In one or two it looks like HRC is ahead, but look at the "Yuge" Indy's and how many are probably disaffected Republicans...
IMHO? If Trump is even money right now and Ronald Reagan was down 10 to 12 points at this time in 80', what will be DJT's numbers on 11/8? My guess? another 10 or 12 points just like Ronald Reagan, that puts us over 50%, and Sundance's prediction of 56% is not out of the question given the Monster Vote.
I remain confident and undaunted...
Go here: https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/18/media-polls/
CTH has become a must read, excellent posters, just like FR!
Probably a lot of absentees just arriving that were sent after the hurricane...
Good analysis. Will we be able to have a day by day early vote total? I worry about fraud there as much as absentee ballots.
Saw the report by the Orlando Sentinel on multiple,registrations and double voting.
Good analysis. Will we be able to have a day by day early vote total? I worry about fraud there as much as absentee ballots.
Saw the report by the Orlando Sentinel on multiple,registrations and double voting.
And Romney lost the state by 73K votes. Looks like we need to double the predicted 72K absentee votes based on 2012. Then again, this isn’t 2012 and I think more folks will vote Trump in Florida than Romney. Romney was really an outsider for Florida. More so than Trump is considered.
Again I keep saying this but the amount of absentee ballots this year will dwarf 2012’s total. It is really difficult to compare the two cycles. We are at over 3 million absentee requests and that will approximately be 33% of total turnout. In 2012, there were 2 million absentee votes which was about 24% of total turnout.
In-person early voting encompassed 54% of early voting in 2012. Absentee voting encompassed 46% of early voting in 2012. In 2016, my guess is that absentee voting encompasses 66% of early voting and in-person early voting will be the other 33%. We will see if that happens.
Absentee voting this year is pulling in early and election day voting. People just want to vote in the privacy of their home I believe which is favorable I imagine.
Almost zero. When I lived in Florida, I guarded my absentee ballot like it was a valuable.
Your understanding is correct.
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