Question. Does “Reps led in this category by 79,000 in 2012”, mean A) there were 79,000 more R Absentee Ballots returned than Dem; or, B0 in the final election count of all returned Absentee Ballots for 2012, Romney had 79,000 more votes than Obama? I ask, because I am trying to think through how Independents might account for the appearance of a smaller R Absentee Ballot advantage this time.
If I am reading your numbers correctly, about 18.2% of Absentee Ballots returned through 10-21-16 are neither R nor D.
In 2012, the final breakdown (per USAElectionsAtlas.com) was:
Obama: 49.91% 4,237,756 votes
Romney: 49.03% 4,163,447 votes
Other: 1.06% 89,816 votes
Figures for 2008 are similar, but Obama outscored McCain by roughly 250,000 votes. Other was almost the same as 2012.
Point: 2012 and 2008 results imply that Other traditionally wins only about 1% of actual votes, regardless of what people say in polls or how they identify themselves in registration. Due to great disgust with both D and R candidates in 2016, let’s go wild and guess that Other, triples its final share of votes to 3%. This implies a large majority of the 2016 “Independent” Absentee Ballots being returned actually have have votes for either Trump or Hillary.
A) 79,000 more R absentee ballots returned.
The balance of absentee ballots (not D or R) are independents and other parties.