Posted on 10/22/2016 6:29:55 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 35.4% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.
10/22/16: REPs - 463,959, DEMs - 443,502 lead of 20,457 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%
10/21/16: REPs - 416,778, DEMs - 399,434 lead of 17,344 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%
10/20/16: REPs - 369,467, DEMs - 356,635 lead of 12,832 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.2%
10/19/16: REPs - 316,400, DEMs - 305,626 lead of 10,774 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.3%
10/18/16: REPs - 265,657, DEMs - 259,824 lead of 5,833 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.6%
10/17/16: REPs - 210,629, DEMs - 210,595 lead of 34 for REPs, 41.07% to 41.06%
10/16/16: REPs - 198,674, DEMs - 193,610 lead of 5,064 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.5%
10/15/16: REPs - 169,862, DEMs - 163,598 lead of 6,264 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.3%
For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):
10/22/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs
10/21/16: REPs - 28,710, DEMs - 33,635, lead of 4,925 for DEMs
10/20/16: REPs - 26,515, DEMs - 31,311, lead of 4,796 for DEMs
10/19/16: REPs - 23,905, DEMs - 28,411, lead of 4,506 for DEMs
10/18/16: REPs - 18,585, DEMs - 22,338, lead of 3,753 for DEMs
10/17/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs
10/16/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs
10/15/16: REPs - 16,643, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,430 for DEMs
Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.
3,130,872 total absentee ballots mailed as of today
2,504,697 total returned (3,130,872 * 0.8)
1,077,019 - REP 43% (2,504,697 * 0.43)
1,001,878 - DEM 40% (2,504,697 * 0.40)
75,141 REP Lead Predicted
ping
Here was the source of the Miami-Dade county info from 2012:
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Dade/42008/113201/en/reports.html#
Looked at the Detail XLS report.
You don’t know how people voted.
Unaffiliated voter here in CO, I early voted for Trump.
But you can’t tell that alone from early vote returns.
The unaffiliated vote is WAY up in Florida. McDonald has a chart of Florida here: https://twitter.com/ElectProject
Romney won the independent vote in 2012 by 5%. Trump could win independents by 10% this year.
That’s perfectly okay. He is looking at comparable numbers based on past elections. That’s all that’s being presented.
Possible great news - the ratio is settling to a constant in favor of Trump supporters.
I’m thinking 2.89 million returned absentee ballots for Florida now (from last estimate of 2.97 million).
Last couple of days, new requests have slowed down to 30,000. Also, read that absentee ballots must be requested at least 6 days before the election.
Today requests are at 3,130,872. Say we get 30,000 each day until in-person early voting starts on Oct. 24th. So 30,000 * 3 more days. At that time, I think the absentee requests will go down quite a bit because people can vote in-person. Suppose 20,000 a day from October 24th til November 2nd. That would be 20,000 * 9 more days.
Bringing requests to: 3,130,872 + 30,000 * 3 + 20,000 * 9 = 3,400,872.
If 85% are returned, that brings returned absentee ballots to: 2,890,741.
Nice!
Wow. Major increase. Staggering really.
Looking at the graph, maybe 175k vs 25k unaffiliated from 4 years ago. Amazing. If Trump wins the independent vote and AA turnout goes down 2 percent (from 13% of voters to 11% of voters) without Obama on the ticket, Trump wins Florida.
But, but, but Anderson Cooper said yesterday there was good news for Hiliary in early FL voting!
Why do you keep using 3% when margin so far is 1.5%?
The margin today is actually 1.8%.
3% was the margin in 2012. I’m expecting the margin to increase from 1.8% to 3% by election day.
For NC (source: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/)
“In comparison to the same day in 2012 totals, registered Democrats are down 10 percent, registered Republicans are down 6 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are up 28 percent. [in-person early voting]”
“In comparison to the final numbers in 2012 early in-person balloting, white voters are a greater percentage than they were four years ago, while black voters are down from their 2012 same-day numbers”
NC is following Ohio: AA turnout is down. Last I saw in Ohio, AA were 7% of vote, down from 10% in 2012 absentee voting. In NC, Day 1 of in-person early voting, AA were 28% (2016) vs 37% (2012). Day 2 of in-person early voting, AA were 24% (2016) vs 32% (2012).
NC is following Florida: Unaffiliated is way up. Huge amount.
These may be keys for this election: Decreased AA turnout and Trump winning Independents.
Why? Is there a reason to think more Rs will come in?
The primary reason to use 3% is that was the margin Rs led Ds in 2012 for absentee ballots. So some historical basis.
On the more “gut feeling” side: Enthusiasm from Rs should boost their numbers. Plus I expect more D ballots to not reach voters. Remember, many ballots were automatically mailed this year. Since D voters tend to be more transient in housing/employment/college student etc, ballots aren’t going to reach them via the postal service (showing biases here, I know).
We will know the margin in 2 more weeks, whether the margin is 3% or 1.8%.
New unaffiliateds are likely to be disaffected Republicans who may lean Trump...like me. Registered as no party.
Trump leads early votes in Milwaukee Co WI by 25,000, 40-28.5 (!!)
Good news.
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