“I would have thought VA would be an easier nut to crack than PA.”
A lot of laid off coal miners and steel workers in PA. In Virginia Obama has filled that state with government workers.
A bunch of laid off frackers in PA too.
At least Northern VA.
One of the two (literally) Hillary signs I see in NE PA on my way to work says “Rural PA for Hillary”
I take this to mean that they know their support outside of Philly is right around zip.
If the internals by region are remotely correct in the Remington poll for PA that recently came out, Hillary has ZERO chance in PA. Even though they claimed Hillary up 4 in the poll.
Basically based on the regional internals of that poll, Hillary will only net win 10-20k votes in counties he net gained over 130k in outside of the Philly region.
If you assume Trump will get about 3 Million votes, which based on enthusiasm and the face R’s have put ~2.7M in the box each of the last 3 elections... That’s a reasonable expectation. Hillary will need to outperform by at least 150k votes in the Philly region over Obama in 12 to have any shot at winning... And that’s ain’t going to happen. She will underperform Obama 12 everywhere not just in PA.
Trump should easily take PA by 3-4 on the low end.
Blue collar hard working Pennsylvanians who would never have gone out for Romney or McCain are coming out for this election. I have seen sooooo many more Trump signs than the two of those guys combined in Pennsylvania. He has a good shot here if Philly doesn’t hand over the fix.