Posted on 11/01/2016 7:56:54 AM PDT by justlurking
There's been some movement over the past three days: from Trump +1.2%, to Trump +2.0%, to Trump +2.4%.
The party ID split on today's result is 40/35/25 (D/R/I), or D+5%.
Trump is still leading the "Enthusiasm" rankings. And when they publish the "Demographics" numbers for today, I'll follow up if there is anything interesting.
I note Johnson votes offloading to Trump.
Getting ready to queue up “Ding-Dong the witch is dead!! Which old witch? The wicked witch!!”
Not playing it yet but getting it ready in the queue...
I’m so ready, got it loaded in my phone, will be listening to it all day. Let’s not count our chickens yet, but yeah you’re in my head.
Please post actual #s not just margins
I thought SURE the FBI announcement would be a blockbuster and a circus of news reports, but everything seems to be a low energy info-mercial.
I really think that the D/R/I breakdown should be 36/33/31 for this 2016. What this poll is showing is beyond what 2012 turned out to be. That is not accurate.
While the D/R split is closer to reality, its still off from... remeber, this is the is the national breakdown by party right now... 32D 28R and 40 I...
The breakdown of this poll is closer to the R/D that most... but its grossly overweighting both parties. Trump has had a 10+ point lead among I’s all election season... With proper weighting to the electorate, Trump is up more than 2.5.. Of course this assumes that turnout will be what registration breakdown is... but I will bet it will be far closer to that than 40% D 35% R and 25% I.
Good news, but seems a bit low on the INDs.
Registration numbers are 32D 28 R and 40 I.
You never know for certain what turnout will be on election day, but this poll, while closer to reality in the R/D delta is way way way over representing both parties while massively under representing Independents.
(Trump has had a 10+ point lead among I’s all year)
Exact Turnout breakdown wont be known until election is over, but my guess is it will be far closer to the real registration breakdown than what this poll is using.
Its grossly over representing both R and D.. national registration is 32D 28R and 40I...
Indies are less likely to vote though. It’s probably off but not by much
This poll is consistently showing Trump up around 15% with Independents. This is huge, considering Romney had only about a 5% advantage in this category. This poll is consistent with nearly every other poll showing his lead with the Indys.
Another significant shift is the number of Republicans voting for Trump has increased while the number of democrats voting for Hillary has decreased. This may seem small, but the 5 point disparity is very significant. (remember 5 from her is generally 5 for him). Again, most polls are showing this trend. The ABC poll this morning actually spoke about this trend.
I don’t know how it will all turn out, but I’d much rather be in Trump’s position in regards to momentum.
Yes, you are right -- I usually put the actual numbers in the body of the message, and I forgot.
This is a 3-day average. So, I think it's moved the poll as much as it will.
Rich Baris says (on Twitter) that it has impacted Clinton's favorability ratings, and boosted Trump's.
https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/793111502278447104
But, I just subscribed in the hope of seeing the numbers, and can't find them.
Ok, just some of us like to follow the total trend in addition to the margin.
Folks, I usually put this in the body of the posting, but I'm a bit slow today.
PPD doesn't adjust for party ID. They simply report what it was in their sample.
They do adjust for demographics and geography. You can find this information in the "methodology" tab.
Me, too. I've actually asked others to post the actual numbers, too. :-(
I'm a bit slow today. The goblins kept me up late last night.
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