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Florida Early Vote update, 11/04/2016
11/04/2016 | self

Posted on 11/04/2016 5:42:25 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

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To: Ravi; LS

4th New Hampshire poll out in 4 days. Trump tied or ahead in all 4.

Todays: https://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-NH-GENERAL-20161103_tcm18-264691.pdf

Tied with Likely Voters, Trump +1 with Registered Voters.


21 posted on 11/04/2016 7:10:02 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: Methos8

Yes this is spot on.


22 posted on 11/04/2016 7:13:13 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Nice


23 posted on 11/04/2016 7:14:15 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Hmm, I think those are more purple of the Dem localities? I seem to recall someone saying Manassas contains a lot of blue collar people.


24 posted on 11/04/2016 7:17:41 AM PDT by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
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To: Methos8

Thanks. Those are reassuring stats.


25 posted on 11/04/2016 7:17:50 AM PDT by JerseyRepub (I have seen the light...)
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To: mrsmith

The whole state of Florida has seen more people voting early.

I would STILL bet money that REPs win the election day vote - just as they did in 2012. And I like my money!


26 posted on 11/04/2016 7:18:53 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

If that’s what they’re going with, that’s a hail mary.


27 posted on 11/04/2016 7:22:34 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: SpeedyInTexas

It’s so nice seeing leftists tell themselves the same lies we did to ourselves in 2012.


28 posted on 11/04/2016 7:22:50 AM PDT by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Overall still looking pretty good. Democrat gains have been under 10k daily in terms of the in-person early vote. I don’t expect the absentee margins to move significantly at this point.

As you’ve said Sunday could get kinda ugly from an early vote standpoint with the democrat strongholds still open (a lot of the smaller republican-leaning counties are not).

Worst case at this point looks like a 90-100k net swing (to the good) from 2012. Possibly a fair amount better than that.


29 posted on 11/04/2016 7:23:43 AM PDT by Methos8
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To: SpeedyInTexas
The whole state of Florida has seen more people voting early. I would STILL bet money that REPs win the election day vote - just as they did in 2012. And I like my money!

Wow I had no idea it was to the extent it is. Up from 2.4m to 2.9m already.

Agree with you on the election day vote. Have you seen those stats for 2012? I'm still looking
30 posted on 11/04/2016 7:29:43 AM PDT by Methos8
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To: mrsmith

Another thought on REP numbers looking better than DEMs this year (counter argument to cannibalizing election day).

REP registration numbers are at their highest ever - 4.5 million. Up nearly 300,000 since 2012.


31 posted on 11/04/2016 7:31:12 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: mrs9x

If you’re interested, here’s the Roanoke College poll out today:
http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_nov_2016_politics

Has 20% “black” vote and 7% Dem advantage.
Not likely.


32 posted on 11/04/2016 7:31:20 AM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Is today last day of EV in Florida? It is in Texas.


33 posted on 11/04/2016 7:33:31 AM PDT by Tuxedo (The few, the proud, the deplorable...)
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To: Methos8
I would point out something else about Hillsborough as well. From 2012 to 2016 dem registrations increased 38k. R registrations increased 23k.

Given the greater increase in D vs R registrations, if the D's perform at 2012 numbers of ballots, that would strike me as underperformance. If the D's have a greater increase of registrations than R's but don't have an increase in absentee ballots, they're lagging.
34 posted on 11/04/2016 7:34:02 AM PDT by JamesP81
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To: Methos8

DEMs led early voting in 2012 by 168k (based on party registration).

Obama won the state by 74k.

Back hand way of calculating REPs won Election Day.


35 posted on 11/04/2016 7:34:02 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: Ravi; LS

CO numbers out.

Let me calculate...


36 posted on 11/04/2016 7:34:33 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: Ravi; LS

False alarm. Those are still yesterdays numbers.

Hoping Rs take the lead today.


37 posted on 11/04/2016 7:35:55 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas
Back hand way of calculating REPs won Election Day.

It's not backhanded, it's factual. Romney won Election Day voting only because Democrats already voted.

Democrats tend to own early voting efforts while Republicans still maintain this outdated notion that "Good Americans" wait until Election Day and then go stand in line for hours after work.

38 posted on 11/04/2016 7:36:37 AM PDT by Drew68
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To: Tuxedo

Early voting runs through Sat or Sun in FL, depending on the county.


39 posted on 11/04/2016 7:36:51 AM PDT by Methos8
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To: Methos8

So, in summary, we have OH locked down. FL looks good. Path to 270 then needs NV, NC, NH, and ME2? Anything else is gravy?


40 posted on 11/04/2016 7:38:20 AM PDT by Tuxedo (The few, the proud, the deplorable...)
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