Posted on 11/04/2016 5:42:25 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 70.5% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.
75.0% of REP ballots, have been returned and 68.9% of DEM ballots have been returned.
11/04/16: REPs - 985,142, DEMs - 910,908 lead of 74,234 for REPs, 41.6% to 38.4%
11/03/16: REPs - 949,527, DEMs - 874,500 lead of 75,027 for REPs, 41.8% to 38.5%
11/02/16: REPs - 909,299, DEMs - 835,206 lead of 74,093 for REPs, 41.9% to 38.5%
11/01/16: REPs - 865,187, DEMs - 793,105 lead of 72,082 for REPs, 42.1% to 38.6%
10/31/16: REPs - 825,893, DEMs - 761,769 lead of 64,124 for REPs, 42.0% to 38.8%
10/30/16: REPs - 821,147, DEMs - 755,712 lead of 65,435 for REPs, 42.1% to 38.8%
For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):
11/03/16: REPs - 121,798, DEMs - 141,804, lead of 20,006 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting
Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000
Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000
Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes
2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)
Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 74,234
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 72,401
Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 1,833
On the Friday before the election, REPs have a small lead in combined early voting (absentee + in-person). STUNNING! By comparison, 4 years ago DEMs led by 168k on Election Eve.
REPs lead in absentee voting has leveled off around 74-75k.
DEMs had a good day yesterday and increased their in-person voting lead.
Through Saturday, November 5th, DEMs and REPs are probably going to be close in combined early voting, but DEMs will likely take the lead on Sunday, November 6th because they have 1 extra day of in-person early voting.
All things, considered, REPs are looking good to win Florida on November 8th.
Yes we are hanging close to them! This is all we needed to do
looks pretty good
Both the REP and DEM share of early voting has been slowly decreasing and Indys/Others have been creeping up.
Indys now account for 20% of absentee voting and 21% of in-person early voting.
Indys will be crucial in all the battleground states (NC, FL, CO). Most polls show Trump winning Indys. Could be key to the election.
Today is the last day of early voting in Nevada. Good!
But, McDonald told me Indies are all Hispanic college students!
McDonald is hanging onto the Indys and White women are going to sink Trump idea.
Polls I’ve seen show Trump winning White women (although losing women overall). That is because of non-white women.
Yeah, I don’t know why he doesn’t face reality. He was so neutral up till a week or two ago.
Thanks for the numbers. With luck, we can hold D’s to under 30K.
Some good news from VA.
“VA: 14 localities have already surpassed their ‘12 absentee totals: Manassas/Park, Fairfax/City, PWC. But 7 of other 9 are in SWVA.”
Numbers up in southwest Virginia is good for Trump.
Looks like we finish early + absentee up 75,000 from 2012
And Georgia
I just returned from a 3 day trip to Florida.
From what I saw watching local television...Hillary commercials outnumbered Trump commercials 4 to 1.
I even saw 2 Hillary commercials broadcast back to back.
Coming from ultra-blue Maryland it was shocking to see so many Hillary ads.
Go Trump!
Speedy - any reason to worry about Hillsborough? It looks like they will exceed their 20K lead from 2012 and this is a swing county that Trump needs to win, doesn’t he?
Do you have a link for the Virginia data?
Hillsborough is the only Florida county to vote for Bush twice and Obama twice. Basically went with the winner the last 4 elections. So it is worth paying attention to.
Hillsborough has seen a large increase in its Hispanic population. Because of the changing demographics, Hillsborough may no longer be the bellwether it has been in the past.
Right now, Hillsborough is not trending the same way as the state vote totals which has seen REPs doing much better compared to 2012.
We will know for sure in 4 days.
RealClearPolitics now has Trump ahead in New Hampshire based on average of polls.
Hillsborough County stats.
2012
D 308k (41.2%), +63k margin over R
R 245k (32.8%)
O 194k (26.0%)
2016
D 336k (39.5%), +68k margin over R
R 268k (31.5%)
O 246k (29.0%)
If the democrats did slightly better than +20k it could be argued it is commensurate with the way the county has shifted over the last 4 years.
Note that FL as a whole, since the 2012 election, has seen +237k R, -21k D and +400 other.
Any idea on the theory that Rs are cannibalizing their election day turnout?
“Michael McDonald ElectProject · 18m18 minutes ago
FL turnout is not going to be up 2.4 Million votes over 2012, so some Election Day voters (where Reps win in past) converted to early”
Sounds plausible, but I remember Rs making the same claim about Obama.
Seems, like crossover speculation, there’s no way to tell if it’s happening.
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