On the Friday before the election, REPs have a small lead in combined early voting (absentee + in-person). STUNNING! By comparison, 4 years ago DEMs led by 168k on Election Eve.
REPs lead in absentee voting has leveled off around 74-75k.
DEMs had a good day yesterday and increased their in-person voting lead.
Through Saturday, November 5th, DEMs and REPs are probably going to be close in combined early voting, but DEMs will likely take the lead on Sunday, November 6th because they have 1 extra day of in-person early voting.
All things, considered, REPs are looking good to win Florida on November 8th.
Yes we are hanging close to them! This is all we needed to do
Both the REP and DEM share of early voting has been slowly decreasing and Indys/Others have been creeping up.
Indys now account for 20% of absentee voting and 21% of in-person early voting.
Indys will be crucial in all the battleground states (NC, FL, CO). Most polls show Trump winning Indys. Could be key to the election.
Looks like we finish early + absentee up 75,000 from 2012
Speedy - any reason to worry about Hillsborough? It looks like they will exceed their 20K lead from 2012 and this is a swing county that Trump needs to win, doesn’t he?
Any idea on the theory that Rs are cannibalizing their election day turnout?
“Michael McDonald ElectProject · 18m18 minutes ago
FL turnout is not going to be up 2.4 Million votes over 2012, so some Election Day voters (where Reps win in past) converted to early”
Sounds plausible, but I remember Rs making the same claim about Obama.
Seems, like crossover speculation, there’s no way to tell if it’s happening.
Overall still looking pretty good. Democrat gains have been under 10k daily in terms of the in-person early vote. I don’t expect the absentee margins to move significantly at this point.
As you’ve said Sunday could get kinda ugly from an early vote standpoint with the democrat strongholds still open (a lot of the smaller republican-leaning counties are not).
Worst case at this point looks like a 90-100k net swing (to the good) from 2012. Possibly a fair amount better than that.
Four days can seem like an eternity with in person voting.