Posted on 11/04/2016 5:42:25 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
If Trump wins, I’m going to love November 9th.
Nate Silver, Stuart Rothenberg, Larry Sabato, Cook, the whole MSM - they are going to have egg on their face.
Nate Silver is so over-rated. His model simply looks at publicly available polls, plus his tinkering.
Real Clear Politics does the same without the hoopla of a “model”.
Go here and bookmark for future reference:
www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote
Scroll down to NC. about 2.8 million early votes. 47.6% wete DEM and 31.6% were GOP. That gave them an approximate voter advantage of 450,000 in 2012 with early voters. We have slashed that significantly this year.
If you really want to scare yourself, you should look at 2008 NC early vote stats. We were staring into the abyss going into election day and McCain still just barely lost.
http://www.electproject.org/2008_early_vote
You’re reading that wrong. 37% of black voters have voted. Their turnout in relation to other races is 21.9% as of this morning. Can you see that now?
He says in the ARTICLE they are down 10% from 2012. I didn’t say they were 10% turnout.
Four days can seem like an eternity with in person voting.
Looking at this graph: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NsmW4jVveI0/WBx6tSc5EVI/AAAAAAAAD5Q/irfE7IwzAr4e8SUuEkCVCpYgL047LHaDwCK4B/s1600/3%2BTotal%2BCumulative%2BAbsentee%2BBallots%2BRace%2B2012%2B2016.png
AA at 21.9%. 4 years ago, it was around 27%.
4 years ago, DEMs were winning daily in-person voting by 30,000 a day.
This year, they are up 72k in in-person early voting after 11 days.
DEMs will likely take overall early voting lead, but so far off their 2012 pace, it will be difficult for them to win.
Actually 3. Fri/Sat/Sun
Yep
From your first comment below the original post:
“Totals day before the Election 2012
Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000
Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000”
_________________________
Since you know how many DEM v. REP ballots were cast by absentee and in-person, do you know how many were cast by DEM v. REP on election day in 2012?
Whenever we read about D+2 or whatever the margin is, I believe that is based on an exit poll question (’with which party do you most closely affiliate’) rather than actual registration.
In NC: “Democratic women made up 29 percent of the early voting electorate in 2012 vs. only 27 percent this year.”
No, I don’t have those numbers. Sure they are on the internet somewhere...
So think of this: Not only are blacks down in NC by 5% (200,000) but of the remaining 95%, according to stories from other polls, 10-15% of THEM could be Trump voters, or another 9% off the black totals.
That’s a nice little factoid.
Weren’t you asking about PPP numbers?
Here they are, but you won’t like them:
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/794561561385897985
There are a lot of GOP women voting in NC. I just don’t see them diverging from GOP men.
Ok, I am just trying to make sense of the numbers. So is that 168k number from 2012 the combined total advantage of votes heading into election day?
Rs in CO are about to overtake the Ds in ballots returned. Now only 6,565 from around ~40k lead. This could be from yesterday’s update but as of right now:
Dems: 554,340
Reps: 547,775
Ind: 429,267
Amer Const: 3,471
Total CO ballots returned 1,553,325.
Yes. DEMs had a combined (absentee + early in-person) lead of 168k on Election Eve, 2012
That lead is based on party registration of those who voted. Since most DEMS voted for Obama and most REPS voted for Romney (according to exit polls), the 168k will be fairly accurate for actual votes when counted.
So from what I gather, as it stands today, Reps have a 1k lead with 3 in person voting days to go. Even if they win by 30k each day from here on, they will be well short of the 168k mark they set in 2012.
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