Florida Early Vote update, 11/05/2016

11/05/2016 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 73.3% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.

77.6% of REP ballots, have been returned and 71.6% of DEM ballots have been returned.

11/05/16: REPs - 1,019,738, DEMs - 947,476 lead of 74,262 for REPs, 41.3% to 38.4%

11/04/16: REPs - 985,142, DEMs - 910,908 lead of 74,234 for REPs, 41.6% to 38.4%

11/03/16: REPs - 949,527, DEMs - 874,500 lead of 75,027 for REPs, 41.8% to 38.5%

11/02/16: REPs - 909,299, DEMs - 835,206 lead of 74,093 for REPs, 41.9% to 38.5%

11/01/16: REPs - 865,187, DEMs - 793,105 lead of 72,082 for REPs, 42.1% to 38.6%

10/31/16: REPs - 825,893, DEMs - 761,769 lead of 64,124 for REPs, 42.0% to 38.8%

For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):

11/03/16: REPs - 131.753, DEMs - 153,229, lead of 21,476 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting

[SpeedyInTexas]

In-Person early voting has started. DEMs will likely take the lead with in-person voting (and they have). The goal is to reduce their lead from 2012's margin.

2012 (ballots cast, not yet counted) Totals day from Election Eve 2012

Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000

Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000

Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes

2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)

Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 74,262

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 79,542

Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 5,280

[SpeedyInTexas]

DEMs have finally taken the lead in combined early voting, by just 5,280 votes. Election Eve 2012, they led by 168,000. So that is a REP improvement of 163,000 as of today! They will likely have a modest increase with todays in-person voting and a bigger increase with Sunday’s in-person voting. Big DEM counties have Sunday voting and most REP counties do not.

DEMs likely to end up with a lead in the 20,000 - 30,000 vote area. But don’t be discouraged. They led by 168,000 four years ago.

Prediction: Trump WINS Florida by 230,000 votes.

[silverleaf]

The democrat ballot stuffers in broward and dade have a lot of work ahead

[Scottishlibertarian]

Can we imply any enthusiasm gap from the smaller % of Dem ballots returned?

[LS]

I’m wondering if all these can’t be sequestered until an investigation.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Yes, I think we see an enthusiasm gap with REP returning a higher percentage of absentee ballots and with a small DEM lead in in-person voting. Sure looks like it.

[Murp]

There are many independent early votes. Any estimates how they will break?

[donozark]

Note how Democrats manipulate the election process. Keeping voting places open longer in THEIR areas than elsewhere. A judge in StL. ordered this same thing years ago. Reason? Lines too long. People hadn't had time to vote. In fact Democrats kept feeding in more "voters."

Corruption/voter fraud runs deeper than whale shit in the Mariana Trench!

[SpeedyInTexas]

Romney won Is by 5% according to exit polls.

Most polls show Trump winning Is.

I’m using an 8% Trump win with Is for my 230,000 Trump winning margin prediction.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Trumps final 3 days:

FL —> NC —> NV —> CO —> IA —> WI —> PA —> FL —> NC —> NH

Cinton doesn’t have the stamina to do half that.

[FlipWilson]

If I were Trump I would tweet the way Dems by adding MI, NM and ME.

[Wonder Warthog]

Everything I have seen regarding Independents (including myself), has them breaking for Trump. I suspect that they will break more strongly so than anyone expects.

And then there is the “Monster Vote” which will certainly break strongly for Trump....but for which no predictive tools or statistics exist.

[Ravi]

Not bad at all

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Early voting continues in Florida through Sunday evening in 11 counties, including the seven with the most voters: Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Orange and Duval.

All except Duval have more Democratic voters than Republican and all but Duval voted for Obama over Mitt Romney in 2012.”

[SpeedyInTexas]

“The Democrats were including in their count nearly 22,000 ballots that are in question because of signature defects or are provisional ballots cast by people whose identity could not be confirmed at the polls, party spokesman Max Steele said.

Some of those ballots will be counted as valid and some will not. Provisional voters have until next Thursday, two days after the election, to submit proof of their identity.

In Florida four years ago, 42,745 voters cast provisional ballots, according to the state, and 24,633, or 58 percent, were counted as valid.”

[Rumierules]

By my calculations it is:

Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 72,262

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 79,542

Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 7,280

[Ravi]

Goid to know.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Correct. Should be 7280, not 5280.

[Rumierules]

22% of early Republican voters voted Election Day in 2012 in Florida. 20% of Dems. 21% of independents https://t.co/hXHz9tTSmx— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) November 5, 2016

Does this mean that REPs are "cannibalizing" their election day vote more than they did in 2012? More than DEMs? Or does it just mean that REPs election day advantage will be there, just not as pronounced as 2012?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Could indicate that. Then again, the 20/21/22 figures are all pretty close. Sounds like a wash in the big picture.

If the numbers had a larger discrepancy, 30 vs 20, that would be a bigger concern. But numbers seem close. Much bigger issue is who wins Indys and but what margin.