[dp0622]

I guess this is the last night.

Up 5. Can’t complain about that :)

[rfp1234]

Still looks good. Outside the gray band of uncertainty.

[Repeal 16-17]

If this is the result of the popular vote on Tuesday, we will be celebrating and very much relieved.

[Voluntaryist]

[SoFloFreeper]

Keep faithful and pray!

[Viennacon]

Is this their final prediction?

[sourcery]

Keep in mind that this poll is a 7-day moving average. And the most recent two days of data were weekend days. And the balance between (D)s and (R)s who vote on weekends is higher than it is during the week.

Also, the day that just rolled off is the Saturday following the announcement of the resumption of the FBI e-mail investigation due to the discovery of what was on Weiner’s computer. That was almost certainly a very good day for Trump. The slight downdraft today could easily be due to that alone.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

I liked +5.6 better.

Interesting disparity:
The daily tracking polls average Clinton +1.
The weekly polls average Clinton +4.

[hoosiermama]

“POLLS ARE FOR STRIPPERS!” Sarah Palin

[cpforlife.org]

per Laura Ingraham @IngrahamAngle

Nov 8th is the 99th anniversary of Bolshevik planned coup in Russia.

We are the counter-coup.

[Future Useless Eater]

For FIVE of the last SIX days, LA Times has been AT LEAST 95% confident that Trump will win the popular vote.

[StAnDeliver]

The two young Amish men - one for Trump, one for Hillary - produce remarkably unique signature shifts every time their turn comes up. So much so that you can even see the variations in weighting as the poll progressed.

At any rate, here are some more sui generis explanations from that poll team:

• "The team of researchers at USC who conduct the poll used the same technique four years ago to forecast the 2012 election" ... "The poll was one of the most accurate of the year. It predicted that President Obama would be reelected with a margin of victory of 3.32 percentage points. He won by 3.85 points. Most other polls underestimated Obama’s margin by more than that."
• 
• "We ask people if they voted in 2012 and, if so, whom they voted for. We adjust the sample to match that, so 25% are people who say they voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, 27% are people who say they voted for Obama and 48% either did not vote or were too young to vote last time. Using 2012 votes as a weighting factor is designed to get the right partisan balance in the sample and to ensure that we’re also polling people who did not vote last time, a group that can get left out of some other surveys."

[CatOwner]

Typical fluctuation from this poll. For the last week (since Oct 31), Trump is +1.1 and Hillary is -0.1. I would much rather be in Trump’s position relative to this poll than Hillary (last two weeks Trump is +3.9 and Hillary is -1.8).

[halo66]

From @LATiimes: “Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes.”
https://t.co/i2bRl4iJkD

Here is what the LA Times is really predicting...

[pgkdan]

This poll always shows Trump’s numbers a little weaker on Monday’s as a result of weekend polling. This is really good news!

[dragnet2]

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