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I don’t know enough about the UK to know if the pollsters should have seen Brexit... but they damned well should have caught what was going on in the US!

All the signs were there, every last one of them, and they just refused to open their eyes to them.

The simple assumption of 2012 turnout levels for Hillary was on its face laughable... just flat out laughable.

Trump did end the election about the same as Romney in total votes... but Hillary under performed Barack by over 4.5 Million votes!! On paper at the national level it looks like Trump didn’t do anything more than Romney, but in reality he did tons more... he put way more votes in the box in most of the states... in some crazy liberal states he grossly underperformed Romneys numbers.. like in Cali he put 1.5 Million votes less in the box... but he put those 1.5 Million in the box elsewhere, in states, all over the map... He out Preformed Romney all over the map... with the exception of a few big blue states.. and that’s how he won.. and won big.

He put over 1/2 Million more votes in the box than Romney in PA and MI... meanwhile Hillary got 600k fewer votes than Barry in Pa, MI and WI...

The 12 turnout model the pollsters were using was flawed and idiotic... Its like they looked at what Cali was likely to do.. and assumed that would apply to everywhere... it didn’t.. not even close.

PA was obvious from the get go it would be in play, as was the rest of the midwest... no guarantee they would flip, but from the very start of the campaign there was no doubt Hillary would likely not perform on par with O and Trump would likely outperform Romney... the tossing aside of “Free Trade” would speak right to the working class voter in the rust belt...

It was highly predictable that Trump would put close to 3M in the box in PA... and Hillary would have to meet or beat O’s numbers in 12 to hold the state... and the likelihood of her doing it were slim.. and at the end of the Day... that’s exactly what happened..

The “miss” here in the US was simply a matter of echo chamber nonsense, the signs were ALL THERE from the beginning... that Trump would outperform Romney and Hillary would under perform Obama.. and Trump’s drastic change in some fundamental policies that both parties had marched lock step on for nearly 30 years if not longer, would likely allow a drastic shift in electorate behavior in at least certain regions is not all over the country.

Hillary losing wasn’t some undercurrent that couldn’t be seen... it was a denial by the pollsters to look for it. For God sake people, Trump decides to hold a last minute rally in MI at 1AM on election day and gets 31,000+ people show up for it... with less than 24 hours notice it would happen!! If you couldn’t see that what was going on was not anything close to a Hillary landslide you were in denial.

Also, by Friday end of the day, it was obvious by early voting results that NC Hillary, short of an absolute miracle had no shot a NC... and while FL couldn’t be chalked up as a win for Trump... the performance in early voting with any honest analysis put Hillary’s odds of holding it at less than 50%. The early vote turnout in both states also confirmed that every assumption being used for polling was WRONG.. DEAD WRONG... 2012 turnout was not going to be what happened...

It was all visible, every last part of what happened on NOV 8, long before the vote started... but they all decided to just not open their eyes to see it.