Even at a reduced price there is room for Russia to prosper more from increased production, such as that contemplated by the mega deal that Rex Tillerson put together for the Arctic.
I understand that Russia is rapidly running out of cash reserves and has already scaled back subsidies and wages etc. My personal interlocutor who comes to Germany from time to time, advises that people are desperate to get their children and their cash out of Russia. If this is so we can expect Putin to look evermore to China for relief. For example, Putin will need money to build pipelines and the Chinese have shown themselves not at all loathe to put the money up in exchange for mineral rights etc. we could do the same for pipelines directed to the West. We could support the building of refineries and the extraction of minerals. We certainly could provide the technology and know-how for petroleum.
The problem is any deal cut with Putin is liable to be betrayed by him. We ought not to forget that there was a joint guarantee of Ukraine sovereignty when that country rid itself of nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, there are foodstuffs and weapons which Russia could sell into Western markets. We can, of course, offer the Russians the lifting of sanctions if we could somehow not sellout the Ukrainians in the bargain. We might be able to convince Putin that he will initially get a sweeter deal from the Chinese but he should prudently consider the downside. If Putin is sensitive to maintaining the borders of czarist Russia, he no doubt will be well aware of the bitter warfare along the Chinese border, a repetition of which he could ill afford and probably could not survive in office. He might well be convinced that the effete West is a safer partner. We could point to the rapid growth in the Czech Republic and Poland and invite him in, winking and nodding so that he understands that he can keep his personal fortune which he looted from Russia to the tune of $30 billion.
There are options beyond oil, these are off the top of my head and they may not be attractive either to Putin or to us, but it suggests that creative minds could put together an attractive package.
