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Predecessors, all the way back to the wisdom of Bush the Elder sidelining relatively moderate palestinians in favor of Yasser Arafat as their representative in the Madrid/Oslo process.
WHY must every president in modern memory feel compelled to involve himself and by extension the United States in the matter of Israel and the Palestinians?
This is Israel's local issue, just as illegals from Mexico is our own issue that doesn't merit meddling from any other country.
So why do we meddle with Israel's?
I have all the faith in the world that Israel can manage its affairs, including this one. They are perhaps THE best prepared and competent nation in the world at addressing this kind off issue. American involvement is not needed.
So what is our skin in the game supposed to be? What's our angle? Did we ever have one? And why would Trump repeat this pattern of failure?
Trump knows the hatred against Israel taught to "Palestinian" children in school and in their homes.
What he is doing is forcing the Palis into the open. He will demand that they stop the hate and recognize Israel.
His top advisor on this, Jared, is an Orthodox Jew—but unfortunately a Manhattan liberal.
His top advisor on this, Jared, is an Orthodox Jew—but unfortunately a Manhattan liberal.
There are some key differences. Trump is adopting a policy more along the lines of GWB. GWB basically set several conditions for US involvement and if these conditions were not met he would stay out. And the conditions were not met, and so we spent those years with benign neglect. If the Palestinians wont meet some minimum standards of neighborliness then they stand accused of bad faith and no negotiations will occur.
GWB’s plan was partly in response to Clinton’s spectacular failure. Clinton more than any President (though kudos to Carter for Camp David) pushed an I/P deal hard. Arafat was the single most frequent foreign visitor to the White House! When Clinton’s full court press blew up with Arafat’s rejection of the “last, best offer” he warned Bush it was a dead end trap.
So GWB said to the Palestinians ‘if you want our support, grow up. Stop inciting violence. Start cracking down on terror etc”
Trump has taken this same approach. Trump told Abbas directly to grow up. If you want a state, then act like a state. Enforce laws against terror. Detain terrorists and interrogate them for information about the people and groups who provided material support. Trump insisted that all incitement to violence be taken off the PA run Radio and TV channels. Trump told Abbas to burn all those ridiculous school books that preach hatred of Jews and denies the existence of Israel. He told the PA to stop paying money to the families of terrorists, and to change the names of streets and town squares named for their “martyrs”
Most of all, which is an entirely new policy, Trump told Abbas to cut ties with Gaza. He told Abbas to stop sending tax money and foreign donations to Gaza. Trump is calling Abbas bluff. Trump is making Abbas put up or shut up. He will not allow the PA to cry wildly about being victims without recognizing their own culpability in the conflict, and he will not allow the PA to pretend to want to be an independent state so he can browbeat Israel in the international political arena where he raises billions in donations. Put up or shut up Abbas. Do you want a state or not? If yes then act like a state.
These demands suggest that Trump has found a consensus among a large group of Arab leaders including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi, and the GCC states. Some of these kingdoms are even financing Abbas’ political rivals including those who are in exile in Europe.
Trump appears to have a new strategy which is to pit Palestinians in the WB against those in Gaza, and to isolate Abbas in negotiations. If Abbas goes along with it, Trump will have stripped Abbas of the political pressure from Hamas, and also taken away one of his crybaby cards in which Palestinian leaders say they cannot make a deal because they cannot get Hamas in Gaza to go along with it. So Trump is trying to corner Abbas into a position where he has to accept a deal or face enormous backlash. If Abbas fails to move on these demands or walks away from negotiations then there is a path to oust him with younger leaders. If he does go along with it, he will find a great deal of financial support and political support from around the world. Trump is trying to make it so Abbas can walk away a winner.
That said I am still skeptical. Abbas and the PLO/PA reject peace with Israel for a whole host of political, ethnic and religious reasons. So far, for decades, they have benefited by not declaring independence because they still get the money from foreign donors, still get Israel to remit tax dollars and provide utlities and trade and more. They get many of the benefits and none of the resposibilities. The PLO/PA is really not well equipped to be an independent state. They have the trappings of a state like security forces, police, courts, and a parliament but it is mostly ineffective. Trump is trying to force their hand. No more two faces, no more bad faith bargaining, no more sob stories that ignore their own culpability.
Trump is going to promise them a lot to go through with it. but it is in the form of a long rope. The PA/Abbas will either use the rope to pull themselves up into final deal, or they will use it hand the PA - and the PA can be removed from Ramallah just as easily as the PLO was installed under Clinton and Oslo. If Abbas fails, the PA may be dissolved and the situation revert back to the way it was before 1992.
I think Trump is onto something here. But aside from the demands Trump has laid down which are demands I have read in several sources, the rest of this is all my conjecture.