Trump Effect? Household Income Hits 15-Year High

or eight years, President Obama endlessly talked about "middle class" economics. All the while, middle-class family incomes were stagnant. Now they are on the rise. Could Trumponomics be the reason?

In April, real median household income reached $59,361, according to the latest report from Sentier Research. That's up 2% since January, and is as high as it's been since February 2002. Expressed as an index, median household income was 100.9 in April, which is the first time this index has topped 100 since December 2008.

In reality it is too early for a Trump effect to have a meaningful impact on the economy. In an economy as large as the US one month data points don't indicate a trend and are not meaningful.

It is premature to celebrate any Trump effect. He has made some headway on reducing regulation but he has only chipped away at the tip of the iceberg. Until sunset provisions are mandated for every new regulation and he has wiped away tens of thousand of pages of stifling rules, accumulated over decades, the regulatory shift will not have a meaningful impact. As far as other boat anchors on the economy - existing unbalanced trade agreements, the complex and distorted tax system, federal meddling in the healthcare system, fiscal austerity, downsizing of the bureaucracy, and an end to the expensive global military footprint with its continuous wars, the economy will not have a chance to realize the 3% growth Trump promises in his budget unless they are lifted.

We need to hold Trump and the GOP Congress accountable for delivering on promises and not be deceived by government statistics that can easily be manipulated.

Reagan won the 1980 election by asking the people if they were better off than they were 4 years ago. They elected him in a landslide. Four years later their lives were better and he was reelected in a landslide.

The truth today is, most Americans are no better off or no worse off than they were on election day 2016. It is much too early to declare victory and if the GOP doesn't get the program enacted soon, it will not have a positive impact on the 2018 elections. If the GOP doesn't enact Trumps plan in 2017, the chicken GOP Congress will certainly not be willing to fight for it during an election year.

The time is now to do or die. So far, I've seen no evidence the GOP Congress will go to battle for anything, much less Trump's agenda. Killing a few regulations, and not negotiating the TPP, is not going to meaningfully move a $20 trillion dollar economy forward. So far, that's all we have. Where's the beef?

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