Posted on 07/17/2017 2:14:08 PM PDT by Hojczyk
But it is Venezuela that could be the mother of all black swan events. As Neil Dwane of Allianz Global Investors mentions, Venezuela has already seen the near total breakdown of society, and its oil production of 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) could unravel. It still seems unthinkable at this point, but becoming more likely by the day. Already, Venezuelas oil production has eroded sharply, falling to 1.96 mb/d as of May 2017, down from 2.375 mb/d in 2015. Meanwhile, Venezuelas refining industry is in shambles, forcing the country to increasingly import gasoline to avoid fuel shortages.
The street protests in the South American country just marked their 100th day, and show no sign of slowing down.
The oil market is rather depressed and subdued at the moment, but could awaken at moments notice if large volumes of oil production are disrupted from some unforeseen event.
(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...
OR, it might not.
Always a possibility, but unlikely. Usually a shock like this comes from an unforeseen direction. This is too logical.
Always a possibility, but unlikely. Usually a shock like this comes from an unforeseen direction. This is too logical.
Always a possibility, but unlikely. Usually a shock like this comes from an unforeseen direction. This is too logical.
(Always a possibility, but unlikely. Usually a shock like this comes from an unforeseen direction. This is too logical.)
WEST?
The US could easily ramp up production. Venezuela does not matter a bit anymore in the international scheme of oil prices.
IMHO, it is too easy to foresee.
What do you mean “west”?
(yawn)....Other producers will see a $20 move in price, and start pumping like there’s no tomorrow.
“What do you mean west?”
The fourth point of the compass. You had posted N, E and S.
In other news a billion bbl field was found off Mexico following privatization of exploration and three months ago the Trump administration approved the completion of the Keystone pipeline. Which means Canadian heavy oil will replace Venezuelan heavy oil which is not suited for many refineries.
The rest of global production is more than enough to prove this prediction a mythological prediction.
Someone is trying to “report” this to spook the oil futures markets with trades they hope to profit from.
Nonsense. There are newly drilled but shutin US wells, many in the Permian Basin that are idle waiting for a price rise. A shut down of Venezuela oil would increase WTI crude to $55 to $65/bbl and bring those wells on line. This $120/bbl speculation is what the future traders love. They see $$ in their pockets.
It would cause a short term jump in oil prices, followed by a jump in production by every other oil producing country, followed by Venezuela eventually resuming production, followed by a crash in oil prices, followed by a leveling off somewhere below current oil prices.
Considering what we have, what the ME produces and the shambles the Venezuelan oil production is in after nationalization they’re really a non-player in the oil game.
Could a disruption of 2% cause such a rise?
Country | Oil Production (bbl/day, 2016)[1] |
|
---|---|---|
1 | Russia | 10,551,497 |
2 | Saudi Arabia (OPEC) | 10,460,710 |
3 | United States | 8,875,817 |
4 | Iraq (OPEC) | 4,451,516 |
5 | Iran (OPEC) | 3,990,956 |
6 | China | 3,980,650 |
7 | Canada | 3,662,694 |
8 | United Arab Emirates (OPEC) | 3,106,077 |
9 | Kuwait (OPEC) | 2,923,825 |
10 | Brazil | 2,515,459 |
11 | Venezuela (OPEC) | 2,276,967 |
12 | Mexico | 2,186,877 |
13 | Nigeria (OPEC) | 1,999,885 |
14 | Angola (OPEC) | 1,769,615 |
15 | Norway | 1,647,975 |
16 | Kazakhstan | 1,595,199 |
17 | Qatar (OPEC) | 1,522,902 |
18 | Algeria (OPEC) | 1,348,361 |
19 | Oman | 1,006,841 |
20 | United Kingdom | 939,760 |
21 | Colombia | 897,784 |
22 | Indonesia | 833,667 |
23 | Azerbaijan | 833,538 |
24 | India | 734,503 |
25 | Malaysia | 661,240 |
26 | Ecuador (OPEC) | 548,421 |
27 | Argentina | 510,560 |
28 | Egypt | 494,325 |
29 | Libya (OPEC) | 384,686 |
30 | Congo, Republic of the | 308,363 |
31 | Vietnam | 301,850 |
32 | Australia | 289,749 |
33 | Thailand | 257,525 |
34 | Sudan and South Sudan | 255,000 |
35 | Turkmenistan | 230,779 |
36 | Equatorial Guinea (OPEC) | 227,000 |
37 | Gabon (OPEC) | 210,820 |
38 | Denmark | 140,637 |
39 | Chad | 110,156 |
40 | Brunei | 109,117 |
41 | Ghana | 100,549 |
42 | Cameroon | 93,205 |
43 | Pakistan | 84,746 |
44 | Romania | 77,910 |
45 | Italy | 70,675 |
46 | Timor-Leste | 60,661 |
47 | Trinidad and Tobago | 60,090 |
48 | Bolivia | 58,077 |
49 | Papua New Guinea | 56,667 |
50 | Uzbekistan | 52,913 |
51.5 | Bahrain | 50,000 |
51.5 | Cuba | 50,000 |
53 | Turkey | 49,497 |
54 | Tunisia | 48,757 |
55 | Germany | 46,839 |
56 | Peru | 40,266 |
57 | New Zealand | 35,574 |
58 | Ukraine | 31,989 |
59.5 | Ivory Coast | 30,000 |
59.5 | Syria | 30,000 |
61 | Belarus | 25,000 |
62 | Mongolia | 23,426 |
63 | Albania | 22,915 |
64 | Yemen | 22,000 |
65 | Poland | 20,104 |
67 | Congo, Democratic Republic of the | 20,000 |
67 | Philippines | 20,000 |
67 | Serbia | 20,000 |
69 | Netherlands | 18,087 |
70 | Suriname | 17,000 |
71 | France | 16,418 |
72 | Austria | 15,161 |
73 | Myanmar | 15,000 |
74 | Hungary | 13,833 |
75 | Croatia | 13,582 |
76 | Niger | 13,000 |
77 | Guatemala | 8,977 |
78 | Mauritania | 5,000 |
79 | Chile | 4,423 |
80 | Bangladesh | 4,000 |
81 | Japan | 3,918 |
82 | Greece | 3,172 |
83 | Spain | 2,667 |
84 | Czech Republic | 2,333 |
86 | Belize | 2,000 |
86 | Lithuania | 2,000 |
86 | South Africa | 2,000 |
89 | Barbados | 1,000 |
89 | Bulgaria | 1,000 |
89 | Kyrgyzstan | 1,000 |
91 | Georgia | 400 |
92 | Israel | 390 |
93 | Slovakia | 200 |
94 | Taiwan | 196 |
95 | Tajikistan | 180 |
96 | Morocco | 160 |
97 | Jordan | 22 |
98 | Slovenia | 5 |
Exactly ...I read the same article. We are awash in crude all over the planet. venezuala fell because of corruption and a communist form of governance , I feel sorry for the people but they needed to remove the thieves sucking them dry.....no sympathy here.
Less than that has caused both increases and price collapse.
Lasting how long?
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