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3 maps that explain North Korea's strategy
Business Insider ^ | 8/9/17 | George Friedman

Posted on 08/09/2017 9:05:49 AM PDT by Mechanicos

Therefore, it was critical for North Korea to appear irrational. Only apparent irrationality, meticulously managed, could convince the Americans, the South Koreans, the Japanese, the Russians, and the Chinese that North Korea was utterly dangerous.

But the regime's apparent irrationality had to be calibrated in such a way that North Korea's dangerousness was never so credible or imminent that someone would preemptively attack it.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; japan; korea; nk; russia
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Great article on why North Korea is a rational player pretending to be irrational for persuasion purposes:
1 posted on 08/09/2017 9:05:49 AM PDT by Mechanicos
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To: Mechanicos

Pure and simply a cartel. They use the threat of war to extort money and concessions from the West, and our leaders, like John @sshat McCain have fallen for it.

I think Trump is going to swat this guy away like the midget he is. He’s going to call his bluff.

I’m sure behind the scenes he’s told them exactly what they intend to do, if he comes any closer to us or our allies.


2 posted on 08/09/2017 9:12:19 AM PDT by nikos1121 (Rudy Guiuliani for Head of FBI)
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To: Mechanicos

Their crazy act could be discounted when they didn’t have a credible means of carrying out their insane threats. Now that they have demonstrated an ICBM capability and with the latest intel estimates that they have miniaturized warheads, and up to 60 of them at that, it is time to start taking them seriously.

The danger of continually threatening to kill someone is that one day that person my believe you.


3 posted on 08/09/2017 9:12:42 AM PDT by SargeK
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To: Mechanicos

I read the article, what is NK trying to persuade us of?


4 posted on 08/09/2017 9:13:02 AM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: dynoman

They want us to write them a check as usual.

Looks like Trump don’t play dat.


5 posted on 08/09/2017 9:13:35 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Mechanicos

“Great article on why North Korea is a rational player pretending to be irrational for persuasion purposes: “

The problem with the analysis is that you have to accept the premise that the Norks are rational. And with that acceptance, you are betting the lives of millions of US citizens who would die if it turns out that they really are irrational after all.


6 posted on 08/09/2017 9:16:40 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: Mechanicos

If the norks keep their crap up, I can see South Korea becoming an island in the sea of Japan, because the US can literally wipe North Korea off of the map.


7 posted on 08/09/2017 9:17:48 AM PDT by factoryrat (We are the producers, the creators. Grow it, mine it, build it. MAGA!)
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To: dfwgator

Pretending to be crazy is a persuasion tactic to get us to write them a check??

Wow they really are crazy. It’s not an act.


8 posted on 08/09/2017 9:19:36 AM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: nikos1121

It is exactly what I have been saying. Call his bluff, start evacuating Seoul. Invite everybody to a summer holiday some 60 miles South. Game over. Cash out.


9 posted on 08/09/2017 9:21:05 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: Mechanicos

We all hope that this article is a rational assessment of the Korean situation.


10 posted on 08/09/2017 9:22:28 AM PDT by 353FMG
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To: Mechanicos; newgeezer

Obama would be airlifting pallets of $10s and $20s by now.


11 posted on 08/09/2017 9:24:18 AM PDT by DungeonMaster (How many ways do liberals hate the bible?)
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To: wastoute

Where do you plan to put the 10 million inhabitants ... not the mention the 24 million total in that area...


12 posted on 08/09/2017 9:28:02 AM PDT by BubbaJunebug
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To: vette6387

Or an irrational person pretending to be rational for persuasion purposes.
If I remember, there was a European “Leader” who spoke and acted quite rationally as he signed a piece of paper that
promised “PEACE IN OUR TIME!”.
I seem to recall that it did not turn out to well, as is made all the headlines at the time.
Those demanding that Trump ease off would be the very first and most scornful if a “presidential calm” resulted in a catastrophic event in this country.
Our media damns Trump when he “does” and damns him when he “doesn’t”.


13 posted on 08/09/2017 9:29:05 AM PDT by CaptainAmiigaf (.)
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To: Mechanicos

North Korea is a Chi-Com puppet. Once we launch on the Norks, then the Red Chinese launch while we’re re-loading. Maybe the Russians too.


14 posted on 08/09/2017 9:30:57 AM PDT by WKUHilltopper (WKU 2016 Boca Raton Bowl Champions)
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To: nikos1121

“I think Trump is going to swat this guy away like the midget he is. He’s going to call his bluff.”

I think Trump already did call the bluff. When he spoke of fire and fury and power unlike the world has ever seen before he was speaking Kim’s language. It was a way of saying, I know what you’re doing, you are going too far here, knock it off. And I think Kim got the message.

CNN didn’t get it though...they ran for a bunker. Just more evidence that CNN is a bunch of witless dunces.


15 posted on 08/09/2017 9:32:51 AM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
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To: Mechanicos
The old North Korean politican extortion calculus is suddenly obsolete.

North Korea is now a serious threat that needs to dealt with .

Kick the can down the road time is over .

North Korea is a far more rational actor than they let onto, but they are very dangerous because the inhabit a very different reality than the rest of the world and their extortion racket has just collapsed for the ironic reason that they are now capable of following through with their outrageous threats.

Before this, they were tolerated because the risk to Seoul for dealing with them was not worth the price.

Now the world can't tolerate a loose cannon North Korea armed with nuclear missiles or a North Korea that is the nuclear proliferation workshop to Iran and the rest of the despotic third world

North Korea has made a quantum leap in both nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology and has been given a huge cash infusion from the Obama’s Iran deal.

It's almost a certainty that North Korea and Iran have used the pallets of Iranian Nuclear ObamaBucks to purchase weapons and missile technology from one or more third parties so any intelligence estimates regarding technical capabilities and development and deployment time lines are out the window because the technology has been transferred to them without need to develop it

16 posted on 08/09/2017 9:33:43 AM PDT by rdcbn
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To: Mechanicos

George is correct, as far as he goes.

He fails to enter one area North Korea has used in it’s threat arsenal - actual minor attacks, of some sort. As “rational” as George says are the leaders in the north, there is always the risk they will miscalculate U.S. or South Korean response to threats or actions, use a U.S. or South Korean response as an excuse to further action that will escalate to what George says the north does not want.


17 posted on 08/09/2017 9:35:50 AM PDT by Wuli
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To: Mechanicos

Maybe Fat Boy should read up on his history about what happens to countries that attack the US. Maybe chat with some folks from Japan or Germany as a start.


18 posted on 08/09/2017 9:38:59 AM PDT by SkyDancer (You know they invented wheelbarrows to teach FAA inspectors to walk on their hind legs.)
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To: SkyDancer
Maybe Fat Boy should read up on his history about what happens to countries that attack the US. Maybe chat with some folks from Japan or Germany as a start.

You mean chat about how the US builds the country back up after the war?

19 posted on 08/09/2017 9:40:03 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: 353FMG
Paging Peter Sellers.....


20 posted on 08/09/2017 9:42:09 AM PDT by dfwgator
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