Posted on 09/09/2017 2:08:31 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The entire Florida Peninsula and points north are poised to experience Hurricane Irma after the storm hugged Cuba's northern coastline. Thousands of Floridians who evacuated the Atlantic cost to Gulf Coast areas found their safe shelter under direct threat from Hurricane Irma as the forecast shifted W Friday night and Saturday. Hurricane Irma's prolonged interaction with Cuba diminished its strength to Category 3.
Irma is forecast to increase in strength as it crosses the FL Straits. The Florida Keys experienced strong outer bands while Irma grazed the N Cuba coastline.
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Hurricane Irma Live Thread I
Hurricane Irma Live Thread II
How big is the eye now,how far across?Any call on wind strength?
40k cats, (360k lives) about to swim.
Yeah. The eye wall is moving in right now.
Inner eyewall 11.2 NM out from center. Outer edge 19.6 NM.
They’re calling it a Cat 4.
000
WTNT61 KNHC 100957
TCUAT1
Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
600 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...600 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 IRMA VERY NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
Key West International Airport just measured sustained winds
of 39 mph (62 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). A private
weather station at Alligator Reef Light, Florida, recently reported
a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph
(132 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
TVS south of Marathon Key, moving NW.
that’s better thanks. I wonder what sustained will be on the ground? We may not know if it’s still regenerating...
I don’t know how you do storm surge for the keys since the reef comes into play,has to be a really tough call. It’s a lot easier on the gulf coast with no reef,they will get hammered.
There’s a vicious northern eyewall on Key West radar. The middle keys will get a good scraping. The southern edge of the eyewall is further from radar but looks a little weak. That suggests the storm won’t strengthen a lot. But the northern eyewall will be bad enough.
its my computer its too small...
Doppler not great for direct wind measurements. Tilt angle, only measures velocity towards or away from radar. Peak, right now, 54.6 knots. If peak really is the 130 mph TWS says now, I see right at half of it.
yeah there is some audio there. ,
Key West surge has to be a tough call with the harbor just piling up water yet they still have a reef. How do you call that one?
At 130 mph, that is 1 mph into the Cat 4 range. If it was 129 mph, it would officially be a Cat 3 now (as of 6 am EST). Also, the pressure at 929 MB is not as low as they thought it would be at this point, but it still has time to gather strength.
Contractors are always finding ways around the new building codes. 'Think we'll see much evidence of corrupt inspections around Miami. Even whitebread Coral Gables had Spanish as its primary language at City hall.
My former 1950's architect's house in Coral Gables had so many trusses in the roof, a central-A/C salesman said, "No way can we get duct-work in there". I had to take a look myself.
I would bet at least that with the baro where it is...we may never know.
Thanks for posting about Donna
I was just listening to the NWS guru on the local Miami news channel, and he was explaining how they’re going to get the huge storm surge hitting the keys from the south, and then once the eye is north of the keys, the surge is going to come back across the keys a second time from the Gulf side. Terrifying.
The best hope for further north is a lot of shear and land interaction for weakening. The worst case for them is Irma ignores the models and drifts out fully into open waters and then goes north. That seems extremely unlikely. So this is not a worst case storm at all for NW Florida’s Gulf coast. Still not sure about Tampa Bay. I think the approach over land may preclude a big surge there. If the storm came in over the water it would be worse. This is not a worst case storm for them, but they could get 5-8 feet in the worst case here.
Thanks very much by the way.!
Wow that puts Sugarloaf in the eye no matter what I believe.
Is there a surge estimate for the eye area? How do you do that with the reef interplay?
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