Posted on 09/15/2017 9:34:02 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
A new study by Scripps Institution of Oceanography finds a 5 percent chance that rapid global warming will be “catastrophic” or worse for the human race.
The study led by Veerabhadran “Ram” Ramanathan, a distinguished professor of climate and atmospheric sciences and adviser to Pope Francis, found that an average global temperature increase greater than 3 degrees centigrade could result in “catastrophic” — and over 5 degrees “existential” — threat to humanity.
These categories describe two low-probability but statistically significant scenarios that could play out by the century’s end according to an analysis of different models of global warming by Ramanathan and Yangyang Xu of Texas A&M University.
“When we say 5 percent-probability high-impact event, people may dismiss it as small but it is equivalent to a one-in-20 chance the plane you are about to board will crash,” said Ramanathan. “We would never get on that plane with a one-in-20 chance of it coming down but we are willing to send our children and grandchildren on that plane.”
The release of the study coincides with the start of Climate Week NYC, a summit of business and government leaders to highlight global climate action.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesofsandiego.com ...
I’ll take those odds!..................
FIVE PERCENT!!!!! Oh noes. I’m going solar STAT! to help save muvver erf. Oh. This coming century’s end? Pffftttt! Not sure, but probably 100% I won’t be here to see that.
Didn’t Al Gore make that ‘end of the world’ call for 2015? Or was that 2000?
The world is ending... The world is ending... Give elites gobs of money and they’ll stop it... The world is ending...
How many times do they expect us to fall for this BS?
so... 95% chance you dont know squat? sounds a little low to me !
LOL
Yet there are those who claim the ability to predict weather 85 years out.
buying farmland in northern canada
78% of all predictions are made up on the spot.
> by Century’s End <
It must really be fun to make such predictions. Because the timeline is so far out, no way will you be proved wrong. Yet everyone will take you seriously.
I think I’ll take a try at this. My prediction: Because of differences in the food supply, by century’s end most adults will either be over twenty feet tall, or less than one foot tall.
Now where do I go to get my million-dollar research grant? I’ll need the money to produce some scary-looking graphs.
What does Mark Silver say. He’s the go to guy for odds. Just ask Hillary and the democrats
Does this mean that Ice Road Truckers is cancelled for the lack of ice?
I get what you are trying to do and I agree and applaud you for it, but I just wanted to point out that I think a lot of people do not get it when you post just the image of Goebbels. A lot of people aren't aware of what he looked like, and so to them it just looks like some guy from a long time ago.
I think you should add something like "Nazi Minister of Propaganad Joseph Goebbels" or something.
Yeah? There probably is a 5% chance we’ll be invaded by aliens coming from Uranus.
Recently hired by Al Gore.
I do know there is a 100% chance each and every one of us will eventually die of something.
The world is ending... The world is ending... Give elites gobs of money and they’ll stop it... The world is ending...
How many times do they expect us to fall for this BS?
It's a numbers game. They don't expect to convince everyone, they just need to convince enough (usually the stupid half of the population) to get the political power they want. The Con man doesn't care so much that some people see through his con, they care that enough other people won't.
The climate and getting on a plane have a massive distance between how many variables are involved in predicting anything about them. They are so dissimilar that making one analogous to the other is total intellectual dishonesty.
The more variables there are in any prediction, the more likely that that prediction can turn out wrong.
A 5% chance regarding the climate is more like a 0.005% chance of a passenger plan accident. We do get on planes because that’s how low the chances of an accident are.
Their 5% chance of a climate change calamity by end of the century is best understood in the plain simple terms - it’s a 95% chance there will not be that calamity. And yes, climate predictions with that margin of error do not elicit a policy change.
>>and over 5 degrees “existential” — threat to humanity.
Worst case scenario. Even if life in between the two tropic lines became almost unbearable, humanity would survive just fine. The people inside those lines contribute very little to life on earth, and the ones who do contribute could easily move north or south.
The main effect would be on drug production and cruise ships.
“95% chance that man-made global warming is a lie!”
Preferred headline.
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