Posted on 10/04/2017 10:34:51 AM PDT by topher
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/041441.shtml
000 WTNT41 KNHC 041441 TCDAT1
Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since yesterday and is now a tropical depression. GOES-16 one-minute visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite classification, given recent microwave data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to provide a better estimate.
Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. A large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.
The depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around a distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. However the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the aforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. As the trough moves away, a building ridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system to the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf states. There is a fair bit of model spread for now, partly owing to the representation of the Florida Straits trough. The GFS-based guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus, but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight through Thursday.
2. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 12.2N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 12.7N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 13.8N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 17.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 34.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$ Forecaster Blake
This system is supposed to move through the WARMEST waters of the Caribbean and then into the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Harvey intensified quickly because of the warm gulf waters...
Let’s hope Harvey sucked up all the excess energy!.....................
Trumps fault /s
This is lovely. My family has plans to spend next week in the Panhandle, on Fall Break. Making plans for Florida in October is always dicey, but we were hoping for a break.
Best site I’ve found to watch all the action:
Wife & I don’t wanna go through another one.
We got lucky with Irma.
Joe Bastardi called this two weeks ago...
“Joe Bastardi called this two weeks ago...”
Yes he did and that is why he is my favorite weatherman.
He was also indicating another possible storm inbound from the east, moving in just north of the islands. At least that was as of a couple of days ago.
Thanks Diana - That is a neat site !
Snoot ;o)
Tropical Storm Nate Likely To Form From System In Caribbean (Florida Panhandle?)
You’re Welcome. It’s addictive!
This is the time for people to prepare and be aware of the potential for this storm...
Moving fast so it cannot 'pause' to build up.
Not much rain expected.
One must keep an eye on it as NWS says it has the chance to rapidly intensify.
But so far this has not happened.
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