Posted on 01/18/2018 9:11:23 AM PST by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
“Tillerson illustrated how the U.S. would continue trying to isolate Assad’s government even as the U.S. objective is “stabilization.” Washington won’t allow international reconstruction aid to flow to any part of Syria under Assad’s control, he said. It will discourage countries from trading with his government.
“Instead, we will encourage international assistance to rebuild areas the global coalition and its local partners have liberated,” Tillerson said”
Biji Rojava
That is welfare. Just as the bases in Japan and Germany, and such. All of that is foreign welfare. Welfare creates dependency. Trump ran on cutting foreign welfare.
“I don’t think it’s possible to get rid of Assad now that Russia got involved.”
It does look like the military attempt to remove Assad has failed, but they have long been working on a settlement deal diplomatically, that would have Assad take his retirement, as a part of a whole settlement package. The deal is not finalized for Syria’s future.
Right now, it seems (much) less likely that Assad would leave than when his regime was on the ropes, but it looks like we will keep a wedge in there with our presence, building up the Kurds/SDF, throttling redevelopment funds and other pressures. Circumstances will change again.
The Ba’ath Party needs to re-brand themselves, and drop their Nazi racial ideology (Arab Nationalism) to join the modern world. The same guys can sit at the same desks, like with former communist regimes, but Assad (the Assad family) leaving is the major symbolic change to indicate a real break with the past. Also, no freely elected Government can securely change power there, while the hereditary dictator remains looming.
I agree with you, that a sudden US withdrawal would simply throw the place to the wolves, and our Kurdish allies would take huge casualties. Iran and/or Erdogan would be the likely winners.
One of the great things about stabilizing Kurdish/SDF rule over Eastern Syria, is that the Euphrates River Valley between Raqqa and Fallujah is the heartland of the tribes that formed the backbone of ISIS - and the Kurds are notoriously excellent at internal security. I can’t think of any group that could more effectively police those populations, even Israelis.
Keeping the Kurds/SDF in charge there will steadily reduce the ability of ISIS, or some offshoot with a new name, from re-forming in those areas - and give us superb human intelligence of what is going on across the river in Assad/Iranian territory, or down the river in neighboring Iraq.
Iran has shown that they will maintain and operate Sunni terrorists or jihadis when they can manage it, in their long term hosting of high level al Queda Shura Council members in Iran - including bin Laden’s son and heir apparent (who was later killed trying to visit in Pakistan). Iranian-supported Shi’te militias are a blunt tool at the whole Sunni community and vehemently anti-American, whereas the Kurds wield a deft scalpel and are strongly pro-American.
The Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq, and the Syrian Kurdish police/security (Asayish) have both shown an uncanny ability to monitor and control jihadi violence in their areas of responsibility.
Having good internal security will be very important for the US Forces in Syria, as Iranian LTG Suleimani has already threatened that he will make American presence unsustainable (by picking off troops, like he did in Iraq). When American soldiers were dying in Iraq by Iranian-made explosively formed penetrators (armor piercing shaped charges), none of those deaths occurred in the Kurdish controlled areas. None. They provide about the best security that you could hope for.
I think the GCC would be doing way more there they we are. And if there’s going to be regime change the GCC will be the ones influencing it, not us, not with Trump. Same with Iran, people think the CIA is involved with the protests, I disagree, I think it’s the GCC.
No doubt the GCC has strategic interests in Syria and Iran, and has had their hands in both.
I don’t think that they can get too far out from under their American security umbrella, without taking a big risk. So I think it likely that we coordinate our efforts in Syria and Iran with them to a good degree. Israel too.
Biji Rojava, Indeed.
“we will encourage international assistance to rebuild areas the global coalition and its local partners have liberated,” Tillerson said.
This seriously brightens to future for life in Rojava, in my opinion. It opens the door for real prosperity - if they put in place good economic policies.
Over the course of months, security is the most important thing, but over the course of years, how well they do economically becomes relatively more important. I hope they let business thrive freely, and open the door to welcome International businesses thrive as well.
Other than Israel, our best allies in the region are definitely the Kurds. It’s a shame but the Kurd diaspora in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran truly deserve their own country, but I just can’t see it realistically happening as that would just start another hot war and who knows where it would go.
#2 Let’s use the word “may” and describe NPR as “may be” a news station. And maybe pigs will fly.
Totally agree.
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The idea that withdrawing American troops from Iraq created ISIS is an absurd, Orwellian lie. What created ISIS was the CIA funneling billions of dollars of weapons to Syria. After the Syrian government lost control of large parts of the country to the “FSA,” ISIS revealed itself and numerous local FSA groups pledged allegiance to ISIS and brought their CIA weapons with them.
The neocons who advocated arming terrorists in Syria are trying to push this false narrative.
Agree. Perhaps the majority of Americans are unaware that Trump stopped arming the anti-Assad forces.
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