Posted on 03/08/2018 1:38:03 AM PST by NorseViking
The number of Putin's supporters in major cities has declined markedly Photo: Maksim Stulov / Vedomosti An unexpected trend was revealed by sociologists in cities with a population of over one million people, where a quarter of voters live. According to VTsIOM's data published last week, the rating of presidential candidate Vladimir Putin in Moscow and St. Petersburg for the month fell by more than 12 percentage points - from 69.7% on January 10 to 57.1% on February 18. In other cities with a million population, the fall of the rating by the same 12 percentage points happened before the New Year, then it grew by only 2 percentage points. Similar trends in cities with a population of 100,000 to 500,000 people and up to 100,000 people, and the president's rating remains stable only in cities with 500,000-950,000 inhabitants and in the countryside. At the same time in large cities, the number of those who did not decide on the choice increased and the rating of the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Pavel Grudinin grew.
(Excerpt) Read more at vedomosti.ru ...
The larger the city, the lower the turnout and the percentage of the candidate from power, Valery Fyodorov, general director of the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Center, explains: "In large cities, the factor of fear and administrative pressure is weaker. In addition, their residents have a higher level of claims, more sources of information, so they are more critical of the authorities. " The fall in Putin's rating is a factor in the beginning of the election campaign, the sociologist notes: "People remember that there are still candidates. Naturally, the authorities lose a little, but the oppositionists are recruiting. " Moreover, to compare these figures with the pre-New Year splash is not entirely correct, Fedorov believes: "If we exclude it, then the fluctuations in the range of 5 pp. And by the beginning of March the figures [Putin] have grown." The number of undecided theoretically should fall, but in practice it grows, the sociologist agrees: "There were two unexpected faces - Grudinin and [Xenia] Sobchak. The nucleus of [electorate] candidates has already crystallized, there will probably not be a special increase in votes for the main candidate after the presidential message."
Million people cities will vote with a turnout just above 50%, says a man close to the presidential administration. Any sociology is an instrument for the active formation of reality, with the help of figures, one or another interpretation of what is happening is trying to inspire, another interlocutor close to the administration notes. The fall in Putin's rating, in his opinion, can be explained by the lack of activity and errors during the campaign: "In reality, the figures are much smaller. The actual turnout is expected to be 55-60% at best, Putin's result varies depending on the region from 50 to 65%. If you go to Moscow for 50% - it will be a feat. " The difference between the turnout in major cities and the region can reach 20%, usually in the region it is 10-12% more, says another person close to the presidential administration: "The future will depend on whether the mechanism for drawing up votes will be included. If the election will be with the full use of the administrative resource - and I do not rule out this - it does not matter who gets what in reality. If the elections are fair, Putin's result in a million people will be lower, while his opponents will be slightly higher. " The turnout in a million people will be 45-55%, the interlocutor believes.
Experts named the most pre-election regions → Putin's rivals feature large cities account for. Turnout there will be below 60%, believes Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party Sergei Obukhov: "In Moscow, the rating of Grudinin - 12-13%, for the country - 10%. So far, its main electorate in the cities is from 500,000 to 1 million inhabitants. " The head of the Sobchak headquarters network, Timur Valeyev, says that she has the maximum percentage in cities of 300,000 to 1 million inhabitants that she visits during the campaign, like million. Vladimir Zhirinovsky has the highest rating in the Far East, and the closer to the center, the lower, says Igor Lebedev, deputy chairman of the State Duma from the LDPR: "Moscow is not our region, but our supporters will still be everywhere." Supporters of Grigory Yavlinsky live not only in large cities, says the head of his staff Nikolai Rybakov: "We distribute agitation materials primarily in large cities, where it is easier to reach organizationally. But Yavlinsky included in the program a part about gasification - and this applies more likely to small towns and villages. "
What will result in the removal of Pavel Grudinin from presidential elections → The townspeople give less result and treat the candidates of the government less paternally, even if it is about Putin, political scientist Andrei Kolyadin said: "In larger cities, a more politicized voter, he has fewer problems with finding sources of existence, and he is less dependent on the authorities." "It is not ruled out that officials at the last moment will include all possible mechanisms, from coercion to threats, because they still believe that in the center they will be evaluated by results of elections ".
In the cities with over a million population, the voter is more politicized and receives more information, the head of ISEPI, Dmitry Badovsky, agrees: "In addition, young people concentrate there, stereotypes about voting as a ritual and a more rational attitude to participation or non-participation in elections are less working." Therefore, the turnout is lower there, and the distribution of votes is more diverse, the expert adds: "If in other territories the bulk of votes will be distributed between 2-3 candidates, then in 4 million people significant support will be received by 4-5 people."
Trump was losing support in 2016 as I recall.......
Time for some “midnight visits” with local leaders in those cities.
Trump interfering in the Russian elections???????
Yyyeahhh. Somehow, I don’t see Putin crying in his borscht over this.
Sounds like a Beltway Bandit delivering the result those paying them want to hear.
Ha Ha......Maybe this is Christopher Steele’s latest project, putting out anti-Putin spin before the election.
The news can be anti-Russia McCrazie’s viagra.
They’re just butt hurt over that collusion thingie.
(Do I really need the sarc tag?)
Christopher Steele is the nemesis to 007.
Looks like US polling companies are invading Russia.
If Russia were a democracy … that might be important to Putin.
Probably on the rise in SF / Berkeley, Austin, Boulder though. It all balances out.
coming from Vedomosti, it’s meaningless...
Back in the very late 1980’s, Putin had to stand by and watch as his USSR was toppled. Then he had to watch China put down their uprising by using out of town soldiers to attack the big party in Tiananmen Square. If they riot this time, he will kill.
The notion that Putin love is a liberal phenomenon is a false one.
Today's useful idiots are rabidly anti-Putin.
Love it. Putin, in the great Russian tradition has killed off all opposition. He needs to be taken out via other forms.
Putin and his Kremlin cronies sent Christian young Russians to die and be slaughter with that attack, Russia has attacked a Christian nation in Ukraine, versus a country like Russia that has a large Muslim portion. No way, would Putin be reelected in Russia in free elections, the common people suffer, pretty shameful to defend the Kremlin poisoning, cocain running Criminal regime of Russia. The people hate Putin, they have even had to put some armed guards around campaign signs.
Even Russians get tired of tyranny. What kind of gun laws does Russia have. I don’t know just asking.
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