[N. Korea] Pyongyang getting ready for seventh nuclear test despite thaw: Japan’s Taro Kono

Japan Times ^ | Mar 31, 2018

[TigerLikesRooster]

Pyongyang getting ready for seventh nuclear test despite thaw: Japan’s Taro Kono

Foreign Minister Taro Kono on Saturday suggested there are signs North Korea is preparing to hold another nuclear test even as tensions on the Korean Peninsula ease ahead of a rare summit between the two Koreas.

The North appears to be “working hard to get ready for the next nuclear test,” Kono said in a lecture in Kochi, referring to the removal of soil from a tunnel at a site where past tests were conducted.

His remarks might be based on satellite imagery provided by the United States.

As for the possibility of summit talks taking place between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Kono expressed caution about reacting hastily to Pyongyang’s charm offensive.

“There’s absolutely no need to rush things,” the top diplomat said, adding that North Korea may take advantage of countries accepting invitations to send their leaders to Pyongyang for talks.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Kim is creating another leverage he can use in upcoming summits. He might postpone it if things turn out the way he wanted. If not, he will set it off. I suspect he wants to set it off anyway. It is just that he can be "flexible" on its timing.

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[LittleBillyInfidel]

Well, at the very least, the true compass of John Bolton’s wisdom will be right there in Trump’s ear.

[Mariner]

I fail to see his logic.

How on earth does he think this will benefit him personally, or Norklandia at large?

It’s certain to result in both of their destruction. Especially after dangling an unconditional willingness to denuclearize and getting Trump to react to it. And China too.

Only destruction awaits Norklandia if they dare.

[BenLurkin]

I don’t think the President will be impressed.

[Vaden]

Didn’t Trump say that any summit depended upon North Korea suspending testing? If they are at it again, there may be no summit at all. What a disastrous decision by Kim.

[Williams]

China may be behind this.

[Empireoftheatom48]

You do testie, no talkie.

[Zhang Fei]

I fail to see his logic.

How on earth does he think this will benefit him personally, or Norklandia at large?

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When Kim moves his lips, that’s the result of Xi wiggling his fingers. He is China’s hand puppet, and North Korea rests under the Chinese nuclear umbrella.

[Dog]

Yep.

[TigerLikesRooster]

It does not hurt to push it. More leverage on his deck means so that he could steer the negotiation to the result that he gives up as little as possible of what he has already accomplished.

Of course, it could turn out that his calculation is dead-wrong, but it is not surprising that NK is pursuing this because it has been their pattern for many years.

N. Korea and China probably temporarily taken aback by Trump's unexpected move, throwing them into chaos. Now at the urging of China, N. Korea is back to its and China's old way. China probably has some contingency plan if this does not work out.

China can do the whole range of things even now. It can destroy N. Korean regime on the one extreme end, or help N. Korea defending against U.S. military attacks via intelligence or even limited military assistance on the other end. However, it wants to force U.S. back to old status quo, while China is working to expand its control over N. Korea using the current opportunity.

[clearcarbon]

"I don’t think the President will be impressed."

[Mariner]

“He is China’s hand puppet, and North Korea rests under the Chinese nuclear umbrella.”

The CIA estimates China has 300 nuclear warheads, with about 100 deliverable to the US mainland.

The US has 1500 deliverable to the Chinese mainland in less than 1 hour.

China has no strategic advantage. And with the US stating Norklandian nukes as a strategic threat, China would be better off taking out the Nork regime themselves.

Because they are simply not stupid enough to take on the US.

[Rashputin]

I don't know enough about the source of this report to question it but I do know that one of the things that scares the Hell out of Japan is a reunited Korea or even two Koreas that aren't each spending huge amounts on their armed forces.

Just a thought.

[Mariner]

See my #13.

[Vaden]

I wouldn’t doubt that one bit. If push comes to shove, I expect China to annex and absorb N. Korea. They wouldn’t want to see it fall to any US coalition.

[Zhang Fei]

China has no strategic advantage. And with the US stating Norklandian nukes as a strategic threat, China would be better off taking out the Nork regime themselves.

Because they are simply not stupid enough to take on the US.

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Think of Kim as Yasser Arafat with nukes. Arafat was Russia’s hand puppet. He existed to stick it to Uncle Sam. It’s ludicrous to talk about China taking Kim out. Why would they remove plausible deniability?

[TigerLikesRooster]

If Americans are fully behind Trump, you may be right. But he faces strong domestic opposition and they know democratic countries tend to waver due to fluctuating public opinion. They can always hope to drag the process and wear down U.S. resolve.

It is probably their assessment that committing U.S. to full sustained economic sanction on China still remains a big threshold, and China can still play a game to distract and wear down U.S..

I am not saying that their calculus cannot go dead wrong, but China tends to favor their long standing consensus. It could be the source of their undoing, too. Xi is pursuing megalomaniac dream of great Chinese empire now. It is the ultimate goal in his political plank. I also question the wisdom of such a policy when China is heading for a period of economic difficulty which may not be temporary. Still his dream is grand, and he amassed unchallenged power. So he is moving ahead.

[Zhang Fei]

Obama’s generals disagree with the Georgetown estimate that the Chinese have 3,000 nukes. The question is whether you believe Obama’s generals. I don’t.

Another question is whether we will launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on North Korea. I don’t see it. At the same time, the Chinese will likely resist any attempt to take Kim out. So it’s actually a really complicated problem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Size

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In 2011, high estimates of the Chinese nuclear arsenal again emerged. One three-year study by Georgetown University raised the possibility that China had 3,000 nuclear weapons, hidden in a sophisticated tunnel network.[27] The study was based on state media footage showing tunnel entrances, and estimated a 4,800 km (3,000 mile) network. The tunnel network was revealed after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake collapsed tunnels in the hills. China has confirmed the existence of the tunnel network.[28][29]

[TigerLikesRooster]

It is true that Japan does not want Korea to become stronger. We will know soon if NK activity is serious enough or he is just embellishing. N. Koreans always keep things tense right up to the moment they can pull some dramatic move. They act as though they can go for apocalypse but stop at the last moment which they paint as their dramatic compromise, while they keep most of what they have. It is better to avoid apocalypse than letting NK have what they have. That is usually their argument.