Never happen. Too many of the “conservative” states get more money from the federal government than they pay in.
The other difference is that unlike the first civil war there is not a clear geographical separation between the two ideologies. Liberals and conservatives are all intermingled. There is also a large group of moderates who just want to live and let live. I think this group is bigger than the conservatives and liberals put together.
There’s always more choices than three.
Defederalizing into regions is just a major catastrophe away anyway.
We’ll see what happens at Christmas this year.
I disagree with your premise. They are not intermingled. And conservatives and progressives are not similar.