“Short of the Dems openly running on impeachment, expect the R’s to lose the house....”
You’re invested in defeatism. Why hang around here on FR?
Defeatism?
Better go check the record. I called the election for Trump coming straight up the upper Midwest in the summer of 2016.
And just as obvious as Trump winning 2016 and marching straight up the upper Midwest, it’s blindingly obvious that the GOP has no clue who the electorate is let alone how to talk to them.
The democrats have a huge enthusiasm gap, if you don’t see it you are blind, remember how you felt in 2010? That’s how they feel now.. look at Arizona special election for instance. Dems got beat presidential Year turnouts, while R only got midterm level turnout, the only reason the R won was because the district was just too red.
That’s not the case in a lot of districts. A lot of purple and pink districts will flip, because the republicans have no idea who the electorate is or how to remotely speak to them.. especially the non traditional MAGA/Trump voter.. and without them they will lose the house. I fully expect the Dems to pick up 10 or more seats in the upper Midwest alone.
The fall dynamic is for D’s it’s a referendum on Trump, for everyone else it’s just a midterm. The R’s messaging is the same old tired red meat that didn’t get the MAGA voters to vote R any time in the last 20 years, but somehow this time they will??? Don’t bet on it.
The ONLY way the R’s hold the house is if the election becomes a referendum on trum for everyone... in that case the R’s don’t just hold the house but likely gain 20 seats... however for this to happen it will almost certainly in spite of the R’s own incompetence by the D’s doing something to motivate the MAGA vote to turn out in spite of the R’s ineptitude.. which would be the D’s running openly on impeachment.
Without the non traditional MAGA and cross over voters Trump won in 2016 there is no way the R’s hold the house..
Not defeatism, just reality. The republicans are flat out incompetent