House Ratings Changes: GOP Fortunes Improve in Four Districts

the Cook Political Report ^ | 04/22/2018 | David Wassermann

[MaxistheBest]

After a rough start to year, House Republicans are suddenly feeling less pessimistic about their fall prospects. At the "macro" level, robust economic data and positive developments on the Korean peninsula have helped lift President Trump's approval rating to 42 percent , his best mark in over a year. Concurrently, Democrats' lead over Republicans on FiveThirtyEight's generic congressional ballot average has ebbed from 12 points in January to just five points today.

Republicans have also received small doses of good news at the "micro," race-by-race level. After a winter dominated by a new, unfriendly map in Pennsylvania and a special election loss, May has been kinder to the GOP: Democrats have had sub-optimal primary outcomes in Pennsylvania's 1st CD and Nebraska's 2nd CD, with more possible. And since Speaker Paul Ryan announced his exit on April 11, 40 days have passed without a GOP retirement.

Updates:

CA-39: OPEN (Royce) | Lean D to Toss Up CA-49: OPEN (Issa) | Lean D to Toss Up NE-02: Bacon | Toss Up to Lean R SC-05: Norman | Likely R to Solid R

[Sam Gamgee]

It does appear Trump has an unreasonably hard time, compared to other Presidents, getting over 50%. You wonder what else he needs to do? Walk on water? Heal the sick?

With that said, IMVHO, Americans and strategists focus way too much on a totally subjective measure as approval ratings?

[catnipman]

Cook Report Nov. 7 1016 electoral vote prediction:

D - 278
T - 46
R - 214

https://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

[rfp1234]

Edward the Confessor won in a landslide.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

House Republicans are suddenly feeling less pessimistic about their fall prospects.

Sounds like an old vaudeville routine.
You still sick today?
Like that great writer, Victor Hugo, said, I feels "Les Miserable" now!

[Dave W]

Three, the midterm voter of the opposing party than the one in the White House is more motivated.

[Dave W]

Thank you. You are the only realistic poster I have seen in a long long time here on FR. We need more like you - informed and actually understands politics.