This is based on the same trust in mathematical simulations as global warming climate models. As much as I love probability and statistics, which have been central to a large portion of my life, I’m honest enough to admit what math cannot do. Math cannot tell us what the numbers in the Drake Equation are any more than it can tell us the coefficients in the climate equations.
Science is supposed to be based on truth, and the truth is that we don’t have any idea what our uncertainty is in any guesses at the Drake coefficients, nor do we have useful estimates for those guesses. We simply don’t know.
Math cannot tell us what the numbers in the Drake Equation are any more than it can tell us the coefficients in the climate equations.
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Drake wanted his equation to spark conversation on the subject and I think it worked.