Posted on 08/18/2018 4:35:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The situation on the Korean Peninsula is flowing quite fast. On August 13, there were high-level talks between the two Koreas and a third inter-Korean summit, to be held in September in Pyongyang, was recently announced.
President Moon Jae-in made the point in his message for the 73rd Korean National Liberation Day that Korea will take another step toward the declaration of the end of the Korean War and a peace treaty.
Since this year's inter-Korean summit and the U.S.-North Korea summit are historically significant as the beginning of the Korean Peninsula's peace, Moon emphasized focusing on peace on the peninsula. In this context, he also brought up how the denuclearization and peace regime would contribute to acceleration of economic cooperation between the two Koreas and eventually achieve common economic prosperity.
Considering the current dynamics on the peninsula, an interview with Dean J. Ouellette was very informative. Ouellette is a renowned Canadian scholar in North Korean studies. He is the vice director/director of international affairs at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University, and associate professor at the university's Department of Political Science and Diplomacy.
His research interests include North Korea's relations with state and non-state actors, North Korean tourism, and trust-building and peace-building on the Korean Peninsula.
Q: How do you evaluate North Korea's recent attitude?
A: I assume you mean North Korea's shift from obstinacy to outreach. Tensions in the region rose to worrisome levels in 2017 on account of North Korea's ballistic missile and nuclear tests. But leader Kim Jong-un changed tack in early 2018, forgoing provocations in favour of a "peace" offensive.
North Korean athletes and cheering squads were dispatched to the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics. High-level delegations visited South Korea ― and surprisingly so did the leader's sister, Kim Yo-jong.
A flurry of diplomatic activity followed, punctuated by Chairman Kim's own international road trips to attend several historic summits that included two meetings with South Korean President Moon Jae-in (in April and May at Panmunjeom), one with US President Donald Trump (in June at Singapore), and three with Chinese President Xi Jinping (in March, May and June in Beijing, Dalian and Beijing, respectively).
With this shift, Kim seems to be signalling peace and a desire for diplomacy. Indeed, facilitating "close contact and active dialogue with neighbouring countries and the international community" are essential in order to reduce tensions and allow for Kim to succeed in creating a peaceful international environment favorable for North Korea to refocus all efforts toward "socialist economic construction" ― the country's new "strategic line" that Kim himself announced in mid-April.
Q: Since Kim already has visited China three times in the first half of this year, do you consider China-North Korea relations have been recovered?
A: To some extent, yes. Those meetings between Kim and Xi Jinping, and Xi's expression of satisfaction with Kim's efforts toward denuclearization and focus on economic construction, suggest better times ahead for Sino-DPRK relations. Nevertheless, I still question the strength of the relationship's bonds, and thus the relations in general.
The Kim-family regime's dislike and distrust of its neighbour are no secret ― it stretches back in history to the public denunciations of Kim Il-sung by China's radical Red Guards during the Cultural Revolution. Kim Jong-un himself may have his own reasons to be wary of the powerful 60-year-old oligarchs who rule China. Allegations that surfaced imply that China's top men had been approached by Jang Song-thaek (Kim Jong-un's uncle) with a plot to stage a coup against the young leader and then install Kim's estranged half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, as the new sovereign. (Both uncle and half-brother are now dead, one executed in 2013, the other assassinated in 2017.)
Q: How do you see recent South-North Korea relations?
A: Inter-Korean relations are the best they've been in over a decade. The Moon-Kim summit in April 2018 was an historic event. If peace is to come to the Korean Peninsula, the two Koreas must lead that effort. As long as both leaders remain honest, realistic, committed and engaged to that effort, I think we can expect incremental improvements in the relations. However, it is unclear whether North Korea has made the strategic decisions to overcome the critical obstacles ― denuclearization, opening and reform. For its part, I believe Seoul must work to maintain the positive momentum toward fostering an environment for Pyongyang to stay engaged, make those strategic decisions and join the international community.?
Q: How would you evaluate North Korea's current economic status?
A: The recent Bank of Korea estimate suggests North Korea's GDP shrank by roughly 3.5 percent in 2017. The heavy sanctions against the country no doubt must be negatively impacting the economy, and the trade situation cannot be great. Yet, I speculate that North Korea is not yet in dire straits. For example, some experts point to stable market prices for food so far throughout 2018 as a sign of economic stability ― and a plus for the people. As well, economic improvement measures of the recent past, in the form of more enterprise autonomy and incentives for farmers, may also be having limited yet positive effects.
Furthermore, the regime itself continues to work to make ends meet by finding ways to circumvent sanctions, earn foreign exchange and obtain energy sources ― as suggested by recent U.N. and other reports detailing illicit ship-to-ship transfers of fuel products, Russia's underreporting of oil deliveries and North Korean labor's return to factories, construction sites and restaurants in China and Russia. To some extent, it seems the hidden valves controlling some of the sanctions pressure have already been turned down a notch, providing North Korea relief.
Q: What do you predict for further inter-Korea economic cooperation?
A: Without serious steps toward denuclearization, it is hard to envision significant inter-Korean economic cooperation really moving forward. Seoul's hands are tied by international sanctions. Most recently, through its media, North Korea is making demands for South Korea to show substantive action to improve inter-Korean relations by not sticking to the long-held "sanctions and pressure scheme" and instead propelling forward inter-Korean cooperation projects such as modernization of rails and roads in the North and the resumption of Mount Kumgang tourism. At the moment, prospects for such projects look dim.
Q: Which economic sector of North Korea do you consider the most competitive?
A: In the near term, there seem high hopes for the tourism sector. In past eras this sector was necessary but never important. That changed under Kim Jong-un's watch. Tourism (and sport) is part of the marshal's image branding and a noteworthy component of his special economic zones policy. Kim is allocating money and resources into developing select tourism-related infrastructure and manpower, reclassifying military properties (like airports and hotels) in part for civilian/tourism use, and allowing domestic industry professionals to innovate with new products and services, inter alia.
As long as peaceful diplomacy, and not provocations, remains his desire and drive, I suspect he'll continue to have China to tap for tourists ― the industry's major market and one North Korea can somewhat reliably count on and control to earn foreign currency. If inter-Korean relations improve, sanctions are lifted and measures to guarantee tourists' safety put in place, then the economically significant South Korean market may once again open.
In short, South-North Korean relations are now better than at any other time. Remembering how it was just a year ago, the present Korean Peninsula situation is astounding. Is peace coming to the Korean Peninsula? Yes, it is shimmering in front of us. Now the future relies on North Korea's active will, South Korea's cooperation and neighboring countries' support.
Once North Korea sincerely and specifically starts working on its denuclearization, international society, including the U.S., China, Japan, and Russia, will offer diplomatic security and economic assistance. Here, South Korea will continue its mediating role for the Korean Peninsula's peace and prosperity. However, this role requires economic symbiosis utilizing tourism and the manufacturing industry, security symbiosis by the declaration of the end of the Korean War and a peace treaty, and diplomatic symbiosis with North Korea and other related countries.
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