Posted on 09/12/2018 8:46:44 AM PDT by 11th_VA
Right, and Trump had no path to 270.
It's Quinnipiac. Would you tell the nice young woman who calls that you prefer Democrats, or the party that eats kittens?
Live interview political polling has become so unreliable that Gallup -- the firm that was doing it since FDR -- gave up.
The college polls could (and should) change their methodology -- but they have a large pool of cheap labor and are making piles of money. Why would they make the change and anger their landlord just because the methodology doesn't work any more?
The plus 9 was probably a minus 4, and if they're cookin' the books as before, they're at minus eleven.
I did not shake in my boots when I heard it.
The media's interest is in eyeballs and ears. I believe they are therefore simply peddling the drug of feeling-good-even-if-just-for-now. I don't really believe they believe it's going to help their chances. (well probably partially that too) ... just that ... I think the media loves Trump for ratings and then loves countering their Trump reporting which always projects catastrophe with selling fake hope.
Basically drug dealers. If you want to sell more Xanax, what better way than going out into the public and causing lots of anxiety first, then saying 'well, we've got this Xanax for your anxiety'. They win on both ends with Trump.
AOL news pops up with the headline, “New Polls Could Mean Disaster for Republicans”. It shows a picture of a smiling Pelosi in place as Speaker of the House. Yuck.
Agreed. Even the RNC has an ad out which focuses on the "Rat extremism.
I am starting to join that camp that says not to trust the polls. I guess from now to then we need to watch any governor or local races around the country.
Yes, I just don’t trust them anymore. All the polls seem to be politicized.
Lie to pollsters. Lie to them so often that nobody believes them anymore.
Excellent. ABC polls try to convince us that Reoubs are a dozen points behind.
This poll makes more sense. The one thing I’ve seen in nearly every one of the recent “Democrats are going to win” polls is huge oversampling of Democrats. A recent ABC Washington Post poll surveyed was made up of 35% Democrats and 25% Republicans and 40% independents or some such breakdown. One poll I do look to as a canary in the coal mine is the Gallup party id trend poll.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
The trend in this poll which isn’t asking who someone is going to vote for or loaded with leading questions trying to sway voters is that Democrats are bleeding support. At the beginning of the year Democrats had a +10 point lead in party id over GOP. The last data point from August now shows the GOP +1. That is a huge shift.
If you go back to 2016 before President Trump was elected this same poll showed Democrats with a +4 advantage. I’m waiting for the September data point(s) to be added but I don’t buy the narrative at all of this huge “blue wave”. Also the GOP is breaking record after record fundraising and has 5x the cash of the DNC. That doesn’t indicate to me an unexcited GOP base. Also with all the good economic news there is no reason to believe these polls. Democrats will gain in the House but I believe it will be much smaller than they expect and I believe there may be a remote chance that the GOP holds the house.
That makes sense since TRUMP policies favor them!!!
Generic polls of likely voters for the House are notorious for being pretty inaccurate.
See 2016:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2016_generic_congressional_vote-5279.html#polls
Also 2014:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html
Believe it or not in the 2010 elections most of the final showed a higher than average advantage for the GOP.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html
I suspect this one will be a mid term for the history books.
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I want to see the Lamentations of the Snowflakes version 2.0.
Interesting about the gallup poll — thanks.
Has this poll been accurate in the past?
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