Posted on 10/10/2018 8:19:00 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
Flipping the script: There are more Democrat seats in danger than media letting on
Flipping the script: There are more Democrat seats in danger than media letting on
By Kevin Collins
In late July a typically leftist Chicago reporter went to the reopening of a steel mill in Illinois then wrote, ‘I left the hall thinking: Donald Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020. The Democrats don’t have anyone who can touch him. Bank on it. Don’t hate me for being the one to tell you.”
Of course it’s true that Democrats “don’t have anyone who can touch [Trump] in 2020; but the Democrats don’t have anyone who can touch him in 2018 either.
Even a casual observer of this year’s mid-terms must conclude Donald Trump has successfully made them a referendum on him and his record thus far.
The totally one sided media will not tell you this but, because of the Trump effect and a shift in Latino support toward Republicans, there are more Democrat House seats in danger of flipping to Republican than they will admit.
You haven’t heard of these Democrat House seats being in danger; but they are in danger.
In Minnesota, where Donald Trump lost by just 1 ½ points, there are three virtual “gimmes” for the Republicans.
In Minnesota CD 1 Trump won by 14 points.
In Minnesota CD 7 Trump won by 30 points.
In Minnesota CD 8 Trump won by 16 points.
It makes no difference who the Democrat is in these races; the seat is lost.
In Iowa where Trump won by 8 there is another one.
In Iowa CD 2 Trump won 4.
Two of Iowa CD 2’s counties were “pivot counties.”
A pivot county is one that was won by Barrack Obama twice then won by Donald Trump.
The leftist Cook Report designated Iowa CD 2 as the 191st most Democrat CD out of the Democrat’s 197 districts.
In Illinois CD 17 is trending Republican.
Yes of course Hillary Clinton rolled up big numbers in Illinois; but there were 11 pivot counties in Illinois where Obama won by 21 points and 16 points.
TEN of the 11 Illinois pivot counties are in the 17th Congressional District.
In 2016 Donald Trump won the district ½ point.
The Democrat incumbent won by 20 points.
Note: In Florida CD 26 Hillary Clinton won by 20 points and the race is now “leans Democrat.”
In Wisconsin CD3 Trump won + 4 ½ points.
In spite of the Democrat running unopposed in 2016 Cook makes Wisconsin CD 3 EVEN.
Ten of Wisconsin’s 23 pivot counties were in Wisconsin 3.
Trump flipped those ten counties by an average of 11 points.
Connecticut CD 5 Trump lost by 4.
It is Cook rated +2 Democrat.
Connecticut CD 5 is 18% Hispanic.
Connecticut registered Republicans are just 21% so Trump’s 41 % is a 20 point over performance.
Connecticut Republican enthusiasm is high.
In Connecticut which has been a blue wasteland for years, this primary season saw Republicans out vote Democrats by 30%/25% and nearly double their turnout for their governor’s race primary from 2014.
Connecticut CD 5 is trending away from Democrats.
In 2008 Barrack Obama won by 12; in 2012 by 9 and in 2016 Trump lost by 4 points.
New Hampshire CD 1: Trump won by 1 ½ points.
Since 2008 this district has trended away from the Democrats.
In 2008 Obama won by 6 points then by 1 point in 2012 and Trump won the district by 1 ½ points while losing the state by 1/2pt.
The district has changed hands five times in the last 5 elections.
New Hampshire CD2
New Hampshire CD2 is designated as the 186Th most Democrat district of the 197 seats held by the Democrats.
New Hampshire CD 2 has been trending Republican.
Obama won the district by 13 points in 2008 and 10 points by 2012. Trump lost the district by 1 ½ points.
New Jersey CD 5
The Democrat won by 4 points in 2016.
Cook makes it +3 Republican.
Obama lost NJ CD 5 by 2 and 3 points while Trump won by just 1 point.
New Jersey is a place that it is not easy to be a Republican; just 20% of voters are registered Republicans which means Trump over-performed by 20 points. There is a huge 47 % independent voter prize to be fought over.
Do not believe Crooked Bob Menendez is close and in a tight reelection race. He is not.
Republican Senate candidate Bob Hugin is killing him.
Menendez has not run a single TV spot in months.
It is very possible that the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee has abandoned Menendez.
Bob Menendez, condemned Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
This from a man who was accused of flying to Dominican Republican brothels with his crooked doctor friend now doing 17 years in federal prison.
Hugin has all the momentum to crush Menendez and as Menendez crumbles Democrat enthusiasm in New Jersey will crumble as well.
On to California – yes California.
The following Democrat seats are vulnerable because of the Hispanic shift, which is being ignored by Democrats and their pollsters.
If you are not able to see this shift, don’t believe it, or reject it out of hand just go straight to the comment section and tell me you “feel” differently.
The relatively high approval ratings from Hispanics for President Trump now stand at 40%.
This is 12 points above what he got from Latino voters in 2016.
There is ample evidence that this high approval rating is transferring to Republican candidates in general.
Last month in Texas a special election was won by 6 points by a Republican who lost in the same district in 2016 by 15 points.
Why the 21 point shift in a district not won by a Republican in 139 years?
The district is 68% Latino.
In Florida a St Pete Times poll found the Republican candidate for governor ahead 53/42 among Hispanics.
Florida is 27% Latino.
In Texas and Florida the Hispanic Shift is on and it is real.
The Hispanic Shift explains some of why Gallup found a 7 point jump in approval for Republicans in the last year that now puts the GOP ahead of the Democrats in favorability for only the second time in a decade.
Gallup’s poll, taken before the ugly display Democrats put on during the last two weeks, also shows a 5 point edge in Republican enthusiasm.
Here are a group of Democrat seats in California which for various reasons, combined with the Hispanic Shift, are in danger of flipping to Republican.
Here’s the Hispanic Shift in California.
The latest Probolsky Poll shows Democrat Gavin Newsom getting just 35.5% of the Hispanic vote and John Cox the Republican getting 34.5% of the Hispanic vote with an eye popping 30% of Latinos reporting they are “undecided.”
This was a statewide survey.
If these numbers hold, and since Probolsky found Newsom up 55/34 in July there is little reason to doubt them, almost every Democrat in a district with a substantial Latino population is in danger.
“Undecided” is a classic answer from voters who are not going to vote the way they are “supposed” to vote but don’t want to say so out loud.
California CD 26 is another pickup in the making.
In California CD 26 actor Antonio Sabato junior is the Republican candidate.
He brings star power and a Latino look to the race.
At 45% Hispanic, California CD 26 has one of the highest percentages of Latino voters in the state; it’s even higher than California’s statewide 39%.
California CD 3 is 30% Latino.
In 2016 the Democrat incumbent won by 19 points.
In 2018 the Democrat won the open primary by 11, Trump lost district 53/40 which way over performed the 29% registered Republicans.
“The 2018 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is D+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district’s results were 5 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made California’s 3rd Congressional District the 171st-most Democratic district [of the 197 seats held by Democrats] nationally.”
“FiveThirtyEight’s elasticity score for states and Congressional districts measures “how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment.” Heading into the election, this district’s elasticity score is 1.00. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moves towards a party, the district is expected to move 1.00 points towards that party.”
This is a perfect district to find the Hispanic Shift and the Trump effect.
California CD 16 is 61% Latino.
In 2016 Trump lost by 22 points.
In 2016 in the open primary the Democrat won by 16 points and got 97,000 votes.
In 2018’s open primary the Democrat won by 5 points and got 57,000 votes which was just 56% of the votes he got in 2016.
The Republican is a young accomplished Cambodian woman who is closely aligned with President Trump.
California CD 31 is 53% Latino.
The Democrat incumbent won the 2016 open primary by 21 points; won the general by 13 points and won the 2018 open primary by less than 1 point.
Trump lost by 21 points.
The Hispanic Shift can easily happen in a 53% Latino district even where the Democrat is Hispanic himself.
Now add California CD 51 which is 70% Latino - 70%!!
Yes the incumbent Democrat is a Latino but so is the Republican VERY VERY conservative retired Marine Corps Sgt. Major.
He speaks to the Latino heart
Donks-esp. those who clowns who call themselves “independents”- will realize what “I have a pen and a phone” means.
I can tell you now, if we lose the house it will be a freak show in the House for 2 years until Trump can win it back in a Presidential year noting just how radical the dems are.
All this energy for nothing. Do you think Trump would sign any of these bills? Nooooo.
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