Posted on 10/22/2018 2:50:13 PM PDT by Kaslin
The polls this year are scattered and infrequent compared to presidential years. Lot cheaper to have one poll than over 400 for congress.
Most of the congressional polls are by local newspapers and colleges. Bound to be left wing bias in them. But those are the polls “professionals” such as Ed Rollins and L Sabato, who are calling it for the rats, are going by.
Never thought there’d be a blue wave or a repub one, just a hard fight with the GOP holding on to a slimmer majority in the house. I’m hoping for over 60 in the senate.
Somewhere Paul Ryan is very sad.
Had Kavanaugh not been seated, there was to be massive vote fraud using mostly illegals, and leftists in the judiciary were to see that immigration and other government agencies didn’t block it. The red wave media blitz was to grant legitimacy to the results.
I think they will still try, and that is why we have south American criminals marching to the United State in order to try to block vote law enforcement on election day.
Pollsters like Sabato, as in 2016, are practicing Taqiyya.
Like Lara Trump and Rep Louie Gohmert were just saying (from their LIVE broadcast, at the Houston Trump Rally)....
We’re fighting a war. We won a YUGE battle, in 2016....we have more battles to win.
Somewhere Paul Ryan is very sad.
*******
He’s a weird dude. He’s probably still holding up his little pamphlet. I forget what it’s called. Good riddance.
Music to my ears. That was their number one talking point at around 10pm on election night 2016, when it become apparent the electoral college was about to hand them their ass.
The senate looks great right now.
But the polls for the house look very bad.
If the polls are to believed, Pelosi has a great chance of taking over.
I know I shouldn’t believe the polls or be discouraged by them. But at the same time to be dismissive of dem chances of house takeover seems like real hubris. They have a big money advantage in many house races and it is a real problem we shouldn’t be in denial about.
I see our side being more fired up now than in 2016.
We’ll see in 2 weeks.
You should have listened to Rush today.
Don’t believe the polls.
Let’s not celebrate too early.
Just ignore predictions, good news or bad about the election.
Just be sure to get out and VOTE!!!
The generic ballot is what it is. But of course it doesn’t reflect what is happening in 435 districts, or really the 100 or so marginal districts.
One of the problems is that all of the media attention here is devoted to the supposedly tossup races here in California (and similarly for the WashPo crowd in Virginia). But the races in other places are not receiving the same influx of $$$ and free liberal media and maybe not as “competitive”
Nothing would please me more to see all the libs crying in their drinks on election night - I might have to go out to SF just to enjoy.
I hope he’s correct. ALL the idiot liberal radio hosts around here spew completely different information, though most concede that the Pubbies pick up a couple of Senate seats
Always enjoy a Rush transcript. Thanks for posting it again, Kaslin.
Rush has a point - there can’t be very many people who went with Trump who suddenly think differently. I don’t understand the Democrat’s tactics from a political perspective. They are shooting themselves in the foot again and again. I can only surmise that they are trying to motivate their base - but are they turning off the moderates? They surely can’t be swaying many moderate Republicans. What they are doing and saying is anything but moderate.
I disagree a little with Rush about pollsters. Pollster’s always get work for some reason. And I’m sure their bread and butter has nothing to do with what you see on TV, it’s the private polling - for politics and commercial products alike - that earn them their money. What we need is a little more competition in the polling business. The newer outfits were a lot more accurate in 2016 - they had to be because they more or less only made their money on the political polls. If these outfits gain steam, then mavbe in a few cycles we’ll see everyone make a better effort for accuracy. Until then they are free to try to use polls to push the electorate rather than to predict the elections.
BTW, if you looked into the data on almost all those 2016 polls you can see the ways they were off - you could argue they did it intentionally. If they didn’t deliberately oversample Dems, then they fudged the Independent numbers. The reality is that Independents break pretty much the same way as the two parties do call it 46% to 44% Dem advantage, give or take. The Independents break the same way, but in their internals they break the Independents heavy for the Democrats. Not sure if that is just to make it look like they are trying to be balanced, or if it’s just their way of pushing the data hoping to push the voters.
You just can’t trust the polls, especially the generic ballot polls. I’m curious which polls you see that worry the most, I’d like to see the internals. It’s easy if you oversample NY and CA to slant the numbers - even likely voter numbers - obviously because those states lean harder to the left.
But all politics is local (remember the good old days, compared to today when Democrats like Tip O’Neil looked level headed?). Each House race has to be polled on its own, and the politicians have their private polling outfits giving them the scoop - small sample sizes can sometimes get you lopsided results, that’s just statistics, but they can also be confirmatory if you are getting consistent numbers or numbers large enough outside the margin of error).
And in the end the progressives were defeated by their own lies. This is why honesty is a virtue. Actually saw lefties who were upset they were lied to leading into the last election. One actually said he did not vote because he thought it was not needed. Hillary never had that big lead. And getting lied too again, will just mean more #walkaways.
Real clear politics current projection for the house:
205 dems, 199 republicans, 31 tossups.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
538 blogs projection:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
This is how the modern Democrat Party operates now.
Create a narrative.
Throw money around to reinforce the narrative.
Demonize and destroy ANYONE that dares to question or speak against the narrative.
Feign shock and incite followers to violence when the narrative does not work. Because it could not be possible it did not work, it had to be those wascally wussians!!
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