In one way you are correct. i only know about the Guangzhou industrial basin, and the Northern Industrial regions. My experiences are limited to my particular customers and my industry segment. I also tend to deal with high end products. Most of what is shipped to the Untied States is the real cheap junk. You can thank Al Dunlop and Jim Walton for that.
That being said, promoting a stereotypical narrative on China is dangerous. China is many things, but it is absolutely not the American narrative.
The trade issue will be resolved. That is certain. Trump and the Chinese are all businessmen. It's just a matter of time.
You know, the news is all propaganda. Please keep that in mind. Whether it is news that you LIKE to hear, or news that you HATE to hear, it is all uniformly propagandized nonsense.
Now to ponder your question about "what will happen when the USA market is closed to them"?
I answered that, in a blog post
HERE. You see, while America dominates as a 30% share of all outbound shipping containers, it only represents 10% financially. Most of the valuable stuff out of China goes elsewhere. Most of what goes to the USA is junk. Certainly you must know this.
Now, a 10% hit on exports is going to smart. But, it will not bring down a nation; cause a recession or result in all kinds of strife and violence.
I anticipate that if the tariffs are put in place at high levels that there will be a close out in trade with China. You won't see so much junk in the stores. However, you will also see China pull out of it's investments. This is a bargaining chip that they have on the table. You know, 45 billion dollars in new companies and projects could go to zero in a nanosecond.No one wants that.
I see that all this will be resolved.
Now, my point is this. Anything that you do not experience yourself FIRST HAND is of a speculative nature. That includes my thoughts. As well. Truthfully, keep that in mind when you read any news. Whether it is out of the UK, CNN, or FOX. There is a ton of nonsense out there.
[Here’s something to ponder: if China is shut out of the us markets, where is their excess garbage going?]
There won’t be any excess garbage. The bulk of the trade deficit comes from things like iPhones and computers. Most of it will simply move to lower land and labor cost locales like Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand. In the past decade, Chinese costs have gone up so rapidly that they have overtaken the costs in those other countries by a factor of 2 or more. A combination of inertia and a wish to avoid Chinese import tariffs has caused many manufacturers, Chinese and foreign alike, to keep their plants in China. There’s also the cost of having one set of factories in China and another set abroad. With the 10% US tariffs in place, many will have to start thinking about this. At 25%, they will start moving US-bound operations out of China.