Posted on 11/01/2018 3:08:42 PM PDT by Kaslin
As Election Day approaches, expectations are pretty much where they've been for the past six months. In the Senate, Republicans are more likely to gain seats than lose the majority. In the House, Democrats are favored to win control, but it may not be much of a "blue wave."
These general expectations have remained fairly stable because the broad contours of every election are shaped by geography and history. Republicans are expected to do well in the Senate because Democrats must defend many seats in states that are generally GOP turf. Democrats are expected to do well in the House because the party out of power almost always gains ground in midterm elections. Even an average midterm result would put the Democrats in charge.
Despite this general stability, there is a wide range of possible outcomes because so many races are so close. As I write this on Wednesday, there are six highly competitive Senate races. Five of them are pure toss-ups (Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada). Montana is barely tilting to the Democrats as Jon Tester tries to hang on in a very Republican state.
ScottRasmussen.com has been doing some private research for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation on all six of these races. In each case, we've examined three different turnout models. We have a baseline projection and then also look at what things might be like if turnout is just a couple of points better for one party or the other. The results are stunning. If Republican turnout is up just a couple of points higher than expected, the GOP could win all six of those races. The reverse is true as well if Democratic turnout is a couple of points higher than expected.
The practical implications of these small shifts are enormous. A Republican sweep of the competitive races would give them a 56-44 majority in the Senate. A Democratic sweep would lead to a 50-50 Senate. Most likely, the results will end up somewhere in between, but the potential for a blowout in either direction cannot be completely dismissed.
The same dynamic exists for the House of Representatives, where the Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to win control. ScottRasmussen.com currently projects that Democrats are poised to pick up 12 seats, and there are 33 seats too close to call. The odds favor a Democratic majority because Nancy Pelosi's team needs to win 11 of these 33 races. But it's not a sure thing.
Right now, the Generic Congressional Ballot polling shows Democrats with about a 7-point advantage. If they actually win the popular vote by that amount on Election Day, they would be favored to win most of the 33 competitive races. But just like with the Senate, a shift of a couple of points could have an enormous impact.
If the Republicans are able to boost turnout a bit and pull within 5 points in the nationwide popular vote, they might be able to win enough close races to keep their majority. However, if things shift a couple of points in the opposite direction, the Democrats might enjoy a big night and gain something of the order of 45 seats.
So after two years of campaigning, the final outcome of Election 2018 will be determined by very modest changes in who decides to show up and vote.
I’m taking my son for his first election next week. Hopefully that will be added to a lot of more first time GOP voters.
Rep. Andre Carson just stated as fact, (on fake news CNN), that President Trump’s base is leaving him. He says we are disgusted. Bwahahahaha. We are the deplorables, we don’t get disgusted. We win.
This is actually one of the very few accurate and thoughtful articles in a hell of a long time.
When was the last election that DIDN’T depend on turnout??
Any Republican who doesn’t vote should be ashamed.
I’M SO FREAKIN SCK OF HEARING THE IDIOTS ON FOX keep saying that the DEMONRATS are going to control the house...STOP!!!!!
I agree. I’m a registered Conservative. So I’ll say any Conservative who doesn’t vote should be ashamed.
Don’t pay any attention to them
Just saying, Bob Corker sucks. When do Tennesseeans get a chance to bounce him next?
I already did on Monday, but then I am not a demonrat, or otherwise I would vote again next Tuesday
Corker is not running. This is the seat Marsha Blackburn will get.
I agree one hundred percent with you, but you also must include those that vote for some third party candidate who has no chance whatsoever.
He’s not running this year. He’s out.
On September 26, 2017, Corker announced that
he would not seek reelection in 2018.
Captain Obvious strikes again.
Along with “trump has given up the house”
The next one that needs to go is Lamar Alexander, who is another RINO
Where do you get that idea?
"Is it possible to lay the global financial meltdown, the radicalizing of the Democratic Party, and America’s moral decline, at the feet of one man?
It is indeed possible.
If George Soros isn’t the world’s preeminent “malignant messianic narcissist,” he’ll do until the real thing comes along. Move over, Hitler, Stalin, Mao, and Pol Pot. There’s a new kid on the block.
What we have in Soros, is a multi-billionaire atheist, with skewed moral values, and a sociopath’s lack of conscience. He considers himself to be a world class philosopher, despises capitalism, and just loves social engineering."
A large percentage of our elected members in both the senate and congress are bought and paid for by George Soros and other lobbyists.
For the first time in a long, long time America has a real President in Donald J. Trump. An elected American who answers only to the American people; a President who is controlled by no one, not even the elitist inner circle of the William Krystal's who form the Deep State and have filled the swamp with their brand of political filth over the years....we have a POTUS who stands firmly on the ground of Constitutional sovereignty, freedom and liberty.
Vote for this POTUS or lose all to a Marxist brand of Socialism void of liberty. Vote Republican and help keep our liberty and our United States Constitution and our Declaration of Independence...the rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness...none of which liberals believe in...power & wealth is their goal.
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